Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Sleepers part 1

Each week I'm going to be giving you sleepers to follow this year in the minors. These are guys who I think could jump into top 30 prospect lists around the internet and major outlets.

Nik Turley.

Some Yankee fans reading this(I'm hoping your reading this) will know who Turley is or have heard his name. Nik Turley was an 08 HS draftee. Signed in the 50th round which is the last round of the MLB draft. Turley had a scholarship offer to go to BYU. For the Yankees to get him away from BYU they gave him $125,000. A high bonus for most rounds let alone the last one.

Nik Turley has one thing you can't teach, that is size. Baseball reference, Baseball America and MILB all have Nik Turley listed as 6'7" and 195 lbs. Baseball cube has him listed at 6'3" 230 lbs. BA's handbook had him listed as 6'4" in their recapp. Regardless of the source Turley is 6'4" to 6'7". I tend to think to think that Turley is actually 6'7". Turley also is left handed which is a huge boon to his draft stock since there are not as many good LHP prospects.

Turley throws an average fastball right now sitting in the upper 80's to low 90's right now. BA It is considered average right now. He does throw it on a downward plane which helps to add to the pitch. The Yankees are hoping that his velocity picks up so it is low 90's to mid 90's.

Turley also throws a curve ball right now. His HS coach said it has good spin and velocity coming in at 70-72. It isn't there every time he throws it and most HS pitchers are like that.

Change up: Before being drafted he picked one up a change up in HS. It has developed to be an average pitch right now with potential of being plus.

Results:

This is what Nik has done since being drafted.
2008. Nik threw 8 innings total since he signed on the signing day. His #'s were good with a WHIP of .75 and 13 k's to 0 bb
2009 Nik threw 54.1 innings. That was 10 starts with 1 other game he got into. ERA was 2.82 with 46 k's and 23 bbs. His WHIP was 1.252 with a 7.6 k per 9. This was in the GCL.

54.1 Innings isn't a lot but my guess is that he threw some innings in Extended Spring training where he started also in instructional league. My guess is that he innings total is close to 100 for the year. I base this off the fact that as a senio in HS he threw 67 innings his senior year plus 8 innings in the GCL. That would give him 75 innings that year and the Yankees probably added a few more in instructional league. They would want him to get around 100 this year maybe a little more.

Outlook on Turley. I really like Turley. I like a big lefty who is projectable and who could add in velocity. I believe that Turley could follow the same path as Zach McAllister and boom. I think he will start Low A this year and you could see him really take off at the end of this year or next year. Guys who are left handed and throw an average fastball will always get a chance. I think if Turley can sharpen up his curve ball to a plus pitch and sit in the low 90's he has a ceiling of a #2 starter, of course that will only happen if he adds velocity. If he just sits in the low 90's only then probably a #4 starter.

I do think I'm a little bullish on Turley compared to others. I haven't been crushed by a prospect as others have. But if Turley threw a few mph harder coming out of college he would have been a top 10 round pick easily. Also bigger pitchers take time to master their delivery which is why I think the best if yet to come for Turley.

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