Zach Greinke

With the report today that Zach Greinke might be willing to waive his no trade to come to New York I will admit I was very excited. Let me explain that I’ve seen Greinke pitch in person probably 10 times. I live here in KC and thanks to my best friend working for a radio affiliate of the Royals I get to go to games for free. In those starts I’ve seen a guy who dominates hitters and has more talent than almost any starter.

A lot is being made of his social anxiety disorder and how he might get messed up with a large market team. I think this point is being way overblown. I think this is being overblown for a number of reasons. One is that when Greinke walked away he was 22 years old. That was 4 seasons ago and Greinke is now 5 years old. Age matures people and another major thing happened to Greinke is that he got married. I think this will help him out a lot. The 2nd major point is that Greinke wants to win now more than ever. He kinda quit on KC this year and he from indications wants to be a winner. He is tired of being the central’s Felix Hernandez a guy who has to throw a no no to get a win.

One major thing to consider about Greinke is that he is going to be playing this coming season as a 27 year old. He is just entering his prime and if the Yankees would acquire him and I assume sign him to an extension so that he would play a majority of his prime or his entire prime in NY.
Looking at what Greinke has given to the Royals if you average his last 4 seasons he has provided 24 million in value. I would say going into his prime years you could say he would perform 30 million each year in value for next year. Greinke is signed for just 13.5 million over the next year so his contract is very team friendly for the value he provides. So you would have to give them a ton of value which is something the Yankees with a top 10 farm system should be able to do. So here is my proposal to the Royals for their ace.

From reports the Royals want a starting pitching prospect or young starter at the MLB level who could step in and be the next Greinke. The package I would start with is obviously Jesus Montero. The Yankees best prospect is also a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. His bat is MLB ready and he would provide the Royals with a guy to protect Billy Butler in the lineup. Next would be Brett Gardner. He is a guy the Royals had been interested in the past. The Royals need a centerfielder and Gardner could do that. The last year he was a 5 win player according to Fangraphs and provided 21.6 in value. I will say that Brett regresses a bit but with moving to CF with his defense and offense ability he should be a 4 win player next year. I would offer up either Brackman or Dellin to the Royals which would give the Royals the young starting pitching prospect that they are looking for. I would add in Ivan Nova as a back end of the rotation starter who could fill in right now. The last piece for Greinke straight up would be David Adams. Of all the position players in the Yankee’s farm system I think he has the highest floor.

I think this is a package that the Royals would really like for a number of reasons. It fills a lot of needs that they have for position players and in starting pitching. The Royals think that their window is over a year away and all of these players would have a ton of team control years which is what the Royals have done recently by trading some of their veteran players for players who are under team control for a long time. Look at the Dejusus trade, they got barely nothing for him. I think the draft picks would have been better than the guys they got except that those 2 guys are control at the MLB level for years.

If the Royals do agree to this trade if I was the Yankees I would try to add another piece and get something from the Royals. I would trade Joba for Alex Gordon. This would get Joba out of NY which is something I think very badly needs to happen. Both players look to me to be guys who could thrive with a change of scenery. This would also give the Yankees a left fielder to put into the outfield and a guy who could backup Alex if he needed a day off. It also is a lefty bat that Kevin Long could really work with. The Royals could put Joba into the rotation again or do what I’ve heard they are intrigued with and that is put Soria into the rotation. There have been rumblings that the front office wants to do that and Soria does seem to have the stuff to start this would also give the Royals an ace to replace Greinke that’s already in house.

I think this trade makes a ton of sense also for the Yankees. While they love Jesus’ bat it seems to most prospect observers that the Yankees don’t have a ton of faith in him catching long term. Catching is a position of strength for the Yankees along with starting pitching. I think giving up either Dellin or Brackman doesn’t hurt the Yankees because Manny B isn’t traded. He is the one guy in the minors who I would have a problem with giving up because of his increase in velocity to go along with his pitchability. While the trading of the prospects hurts the farm system with a deep draft the Yankees should be able to restock it with 2 picks probably falling in the first 50 picks. So I ask you world what do you think of my thinking?

A look back.

In one of my last posts before life got in the way I looked at a hitter and pitcher at each level. Let’s see if I knew anything.

AAA
- Hitter. Jesus Montero. Wow I went all out with this pick. In my defense thou there was no one else at the AAA level to really pick. Montero’s triple slash line was the following .289/.353/.517. Extremely impressive stuff for a guy who was 20 for the whole season. His walk rate in 09 was 7.38%, in 10 was 9.12 which is good for one of the youngest players at AAA. While Montero did strike out more than double his total from last year I am not too concerned. Overall a great year for Montero
- Pitcher – Zach McAllister. Wow terrible pick. McAllister dropped off the prospect map almost. In every aspect except one did Zach have a terrible year, he had more innings then he had before 149.2 actually. Whip in 09 was 1.083, in 2010 1.537, K/9 was 7.1 in 09 to 6.0 in 2010. ERA in 2009 was 2.23 which is a good, 5.29 in 2010. Overall a terrible season for Zach and oh ya they shipped him off to Cleveland.
AA
- Hitter – David Adams. I wanted to see if the 2nd half surge that Adams had wasn’t a fluke. It sure wasn’t. Adams was derailed by a very bad ankle sprain that turned out to be broken. Only bad part of Adams season was he got 173 at bats but his triple slash line was this, .309/.393/.507. Strike out rate for Adams was 15.4% in 2009, 2010 it was 17.9% but the way he was scolding the ball I don’t have a problem with his. His walk rate was 10.7% for 2009 while his walk rate in 2010 was 10.4% so roughly the same. Out of all the hitters in the Yankees farm system I think Adams has the defensive ability to be average which means he should be an average MLB player. Not too bad for a 3rd round pick.

- Pitcher – DJ Mitchell. Mitchell had a good season, not great just good which is fine. I don’t think he will be a starter going forward as lefties continued to hurt him. His K rate did jump up in AAA but it was only 17 innings. If he can limit lefties and keep his K rate over 7 I think he might be a starter, the problem is his change up isn’t developing. Mitchell should compete to be the #8 starter of the Yankees.

A+
- Hitter – Abe Almonte. An injury season for Almonte. When he was out there it wasn’t great thou. Good luck next year Abe, you’ve been a favorite of mine for a few years. Please put all that talent together next year. Be the Melky Mesa of 2011.

- Pitcher – Jairo Heredia. He has now fallen off the Yankees radar and the prospect map. 2 years in a row he has shown up to camp out of shape. He is now a reliever in the Yankees mind and I’ve lost all faith in him going forward. Bad pick Jake.


A-
- Hitter – Slade Heathcott. For being a teenager in Low A Slade did a good job. I would have liked a little more power but he had a bump left shoulder that he had operated on after the season. Slade had a triple slash line of .258/.359/.352. The power wasn’t there but a .359 OBP as a teen is impressive. I would like to see Slade cut down on his K rate while hitting for some power. Hopefully the Yankees aren’t too bullish with Slade. Send him back down to Low A to start the year then go to High A after a month or 2.

- Pitcher – Nik Turley. A personal favorite of mine didn’t make to Low A still. He pitched in Staten Island for the first time and was ok. Not great just ok. I want to see them turn the big guy lose but I think the Yankees know something that I don’t. He is a large guy so maybe they are still working on his mechanics.

Looking at the guys I picked I will pat myself on the back for picking Adams. If he had stayed healthy for the whole season he would have gotten to AAA. He also probably would have been the best AA player for the Yankees based on everything. I will not give myself credit for picking Jesus, it was a pretty easy pick. Slade also was a pretty easy pick but I should get a little credit for that one. Almonte is a pass because of the injury. On the pitching side to say I sucked it up is being kind. Mitchell had a decent year but not great. Every other guy sucked or didn’t pitch for the level I thought. Hopefully next March I can do a little better with my picks.