Fast Risers Part 1

Sorry about the lack of updates for a few days. 10 straight days at work will do that for free time. Also the wife wants some time so blogging had to take a back seat for a few days. Well I’m off for the next few days so I will be posting so don’t worry.

Adam Warren could be a fast riser in the Yankee farm system. Warren is a senior signing of the 09 draft. He was drafted in the 4th round out of powerhouse North Carolina. Warren is a smart guy graduating with a GPA of 3.36 and a degree in business.

College years:
2006: As an 18 year old freshman Warren pitched 24.1 innings, 3 games were started and he got into another 12 games. Warren had an ERA of 4.81, with 15 K’s to 13 BB’s. Not great but he was 18 years old
2007: 70 innings for this year with 12 games started getting into 3 more games. His ERA was great, 2.17. While his numbers was good it probably was somewhat luck based. 49 K’s to 28 BB’s.
2008: This was the year to jump for Warren and he fell a little flat. As a 20 year old he pitched 18 games, all starts for 83 innings total. 73 K’s to 46 BB’s for the year. His ERA was 4.23 for the year.
2009: Warren lowered his ERA to 3.31. His 103 K’s were a career high, he had 36 BB’s to go with that in 98 innings.
It’s hard to look at his stats in college because we don’t know what level of competition he was facing. He was at a powerhouse school and a good conference. There are good signs thou, his K per 9 increased every year he was in college.

H/9 BB/9 K/9 Whip
2006 10.7 4.8 5.5 1.73
2007 7.1 3.6 6.2 1.19
2008 9.3 5.0 7.9 1.59
2009 7.6 3.6 9.5 1.24

Looking at this I think that Warren has gotten better each year. Warren’s BB’s have decreased while his K rate keeps rising, this is a very good trend.
Minor League season:
2009: Warren started 12 games for Staten Island. He pitched 56.2 innings for the affiliate over the course of 12 games, all starts. His K’s at Staten Island were 50 while his walks were just 10. His ERA was 1.43 which is very good, if he had qualified with more innings his ERA would have lead the league. Warren’s WHIP was 1.04 mostly because he lowered his walk rate. This would have been in the top 10 also for the league if he had more innings.

Warren’s velocity has seen a jump starting at the half way point of his senior season. He was mostly 89-91 peaking at 92 at times. Now he is sitting 93-94 touching 95. Adam also throws a 2 seamer which got him a ton of groundballs at State Island. He also throws a changeup, curveball and slider/cutter.

Seeing Warren pitch on Youtube, he looks built well. He is listed as 6’1” to 6’3” depending on where you look. His weight is 200 to 215 lbs which is good. It’s hard to see how tall Warren is from the video but he looks as if he can handle innings on his frame. I say that because in 09 he pitched a combine 154 innings.
In an interview with Pending Pinstripes’ Greg Fertel Warren said that the Yankees want him to work on stretching and flexibility. From the interview Warren comes off as a guy who wants to get better, will work hard in the offseason to get his body in the best shape and as an intelligent guy. (Link to the whole article http://www.sportsnewsandscores.com/qa-with-new-york-yankees-pitching-prospect-adam-warren.html )

Outlook:
Warren will probably start off at High A Tampa. I could see him pitching there like Jeremy Bleich did and getting a call up after 10 to 14 starts. Being only 22 to start the season Warren could be an option for the Yankees to make a spot start at the end of next season at the earliest if he dominates hitters like Ian Kennedy did.
NY shouldn’t be worried about inning for Warren since he threw 150 this last year. Kennedy and Warren both entered their first full minor league season at the same age even thou Kennedy was drafted as a junior and Warren as a senior.

Ceiling:
It’s hard to make a good guess on Warren’s ceiling because of his velocity jump. If that is true and he pitches at those velocities it changes how he is as a prospect. If he settles back down to what his velocity was before this season it makes grading him as a prospect easier. As of this point I can’t put a grade or a ceiling on Warren. I think we need to see how he pitches and how his pitches play out. If his velocity stays where it was at Staten Island the Yankees look to have grabbed a steal with their 4th round pick since they signed him for slot $158,000. Only time will tell on Warren’s ceiling, I will give a ceiling of him after the minor league season. I will say a good player comp could be Junichi Tazawa.