Quick observations from Sickels top 20 list.

Today as I was waiting to get on a conference call for work when I saw a tweet from John Sickels. He had put out his preliminary top 20 list for Yankees. I had to go over and check it out. First I will say I greatly respect him for all the work he does himself on his site and the book he annually puts out. Another reason I respect Mr. Sickels is that we are both from Des Moines Iowa and both went to Northwest Missouri Sate University. Also he lives in Lawrence which is about 15 minutes away from my house here in Kansas City.

Here is the link to the site and list. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/15/1878701/new-york-yankees-top-20-prospects-for-2011

Things that stand out to me about the list:
1. Hector Noesi has a very aggressive ranking. Hector did have a very good season this year. At 3 levels he pitched 160.1 innings with 153 strikeouts. He had an era of 3.20 with a FIP being in the 3’s. My only concern with looking at his stats is that his K rate dropped each level he jumped. Luckily his walk rate stayed pretty consistent never getting over 1.9 per 9. Hopefully Hector can keep dominating hitters with his fastball velocity and command. If he could only get a plus breaking ball he would be higher than a #3 starter but right now he has a high floor. I would call him the Ian Kennedy of the farm right now because of that high floor.

2. David Adams injury sapped a ton of prospect status. Sickels ranked him a C+ and I really wonder what he would have been if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Adams was destroying the ball and it wasn’t over 50 at bats but 173. His triple slash line was .309/.393/.507 for a nice .900 OPS. He also was doing this while playing in one of the hardest divisions for hitters. His wOBA was .403 and his wRC+ was 148 both great #’s. While his defensive isn’t going to be his calling card I think it’s really hard to gauge a guy defensively without a lot of data. Also with any prospect most of these guys are young men and do improve with more professional coaching.

3. Eduardo Nunez. John put that he is looking more like a utility guy. If that is the case I don’t think he should be ranked. I would have subbed out almost any prospect with some upside for him. I’ve slowly come around on Nunez (not quite how Mike A at RAB is)that he isn't good and is living off 1 good season some time ago . I believe only starting players or starters should make a top 20 list unless they have a possibility of being a closer.

4. Ramon Flores. This guy just keeps getting over looked by a ton of people. At 3 levels the 18 year old hit a combined .303/.390/.419 for an 808 OPS. He got 20 at bats at High A even before getting any at bats at Low A. The Yankees are very impressive with him and one major factor I believe going for Flores is his batting eye. He had 31 walks to 42 strike outs for an 18 year old. That is huge. The power #’s will develop and I think to somewhat of a degree a batting eye can develop. But that being said some kids really have a great eye and Flores is one of them. Where Flores got most of his at bats was at the Gulf coast league where he wOBA .433 with a wRC+ of 171 which are huge numbers for an 18 year old kid.

Those are just some quick observations after taking a quick look at Sickels list. I would have liked to have Bryan Mitchell be up since of the guys going to Low A I think he has the most potential. Hopefully he along with Brett Marshall will be the M and M boys next year that Yankee prospect watchers will be clamoring over.

Disappointments down on the Farm 2010 edition.

As Yankee fans are waiting for Cliff Lee to decide who he wants to play for next year I thought I would get my mind off the situation by making a blog post. So I thought I would look at some players who I was hoping to have good years and didn’t quite do it. The farm system as a whole had a great year, these are some guys who I was hoping would do well.

1. Bryan Mitchell. Coming into this year Mitchell was the number 11 prospect. His scouting report was a 88 to 92 mph fastball that could touch 94. That wasn’t even Mitchells best pitch which was a very good curveball which BA said could be the best in the system. Reading the scouting reports and the face it looked like Mitchell was going to start at Low A I was really excited. Mitchell ended up going to the Gulf Coast league to pitch. While he was good there he wasn’t great. The biggest concern was the BB/9 which was 4.8. He did have a good K rate at 7.8 per 9. Mitchell will be 20 years old going to Low A next year so hopefully he will have a great year to push himself back up to almost a top 10 prospect.

2. Nik Turly. I’ve always been a big Turley fan. Big lefties have a place in my heart. This was the year that I was sure the Yankees would send to Low A. Hurley was 20 years old going into the year and had been with the organization for over a year going into this season. He went to Staten Island to pitch and was ok. His K rate was ok at 6.9 but the big lefty had a 4.2 walk rate. I think Turley is starting to run out of time with the Yankees. If he doesn’t go to Low A again and probably really dominate I think he will go to college. Good thing for Turley he got a full ride paid for by the Yankees.

3. Caleb Cotham. He was considered a fast risers if he was healthy. Probably for Caleb was he wasn’t. He had surgery and didn’t pit at all. Hopefully starting next year he can be healthy and be a fast mover.

4. Jairo Herredia. What to say about Jairo. Mike A over at RAB had nicknamed him the Dominican Hughes. Well Hughes never took his conditioning in question. For 2 straight years Jairo has done that and struggled. To make matters worst the Yankees moved him over to relief pitcher. The guy is 20 for the whole year but the Yankees moved him to relief. Not a good sign. Hopefully Jairo decides that he wants to be a big pitcher and comes to next year ready to pitch.

5. Evan Deluca. He is another guy I had heard some hype going around after the 2009 draft. Deluca is a big time lefty that the Yankees decided to go hard after at the deadline of the draft. There were reports the he had a great arm but has no idea where the ball is going. Looking at his stats I think that is very accurate. He had a 10.4 K per 9 but a 8.3 BB per 9. Luckily for Deluca he is still young so hopefully in instructional league they were able start to harness his big time left arm.

Those are 5 guys in the system that had down years. Seeing the list I’m surprised that I didn’t have any position players. That being said the Yankee farm system has been all about pitching for some time, only recently has Damon Opp has drafted some high upside position players. Now out of these guys some still have good upside, especially Bryan Mitchell. I have a ton of confidence in him out of this group of guys. Hopefully next year all of these guys will have had good seasons to either improve their prospect status or make them prospects again.

Thoughts on Brett Marshall

Over at scouting the Sally, Mike Newman has a scouting report from when he was able to see Marshall this summer. http://scoutingthesally.com/?p=2379 That is the link to the scouting report and I highly recommend it because Mike does a great job on the site. One reason I enjoy reading Mike’s take on prospects compared to other guys is because he sees the guy, takes video of them along with notes. He and his site are a major boon to us prospect nuts. Mike also is a nice guy who will answer emails and tweets, I’ve bothered him a few different times.

On twitter Mike and I had a nice exchange after I read his scouting report on Marshall. I had asked him if he thought that with a plus slider that could Marshall could be a number 2 starter. Mike wasn’t sure if he had that ceiling but he did mention that a scout told him that he thought Marshall could be something special. I was a little taken by that. I thought Marshall would be a good #3 starter and contrary to some NY fans those are good things to have in a farm system.
One major thing to keep in mind about Marshall is that he got the highest bonus of any Yankee draft picks from the 08 draft. He got 800k from the Yankees as a 6th round pick instead of going to Rice. So even thou Jeremy Bleich was a supplement first round pick, he actually got less than the high school pitcher out of Texas. To me this shows that the Yankees thought that had something impressive in Marshall.

2010 was a year that Marshal had to prove something because of his 2009. In 2009 the Yankees were very aggressive with him and sent him to Low A as a 19 year old kid. On top of the very aggressive move to send him there they tweaked his mechanics and said no more slider Mr. Marshall. Good old Nardi Contreras taught him a curve and off he went. Problem for Marshall and the Yankees was he blew his elbow out and required Tommy John surgery. So this year being the first one back for Marshall it’s very encouraging to read Mike’s scouting report on him. One major thing to take note is that the Yankees gave Marshall his slider back. That’s important because Marshall did an interview with the guys over at Nomaas.org and he said he blew his elbow out on a curve ball.

Fast forward to this year and Marshall comes back and he comes back a different pitcher than he was before the injury. The first year back from Tommy John surgery usually the pitchers have the velocity back but not the command. It doesn’t appear to be the case with Marshall. In 87 innings in 2009 Marshall had a BB/9 of 3.81 compared to 2010 when it was 2.75 in 72 innings at the same level.
Marshall also improved one major stat and that his is k/bb rate. In 2009 it was 1.62 compared to 2010 when it was 2.55. All of this tells me that his command should actually improve and he have a better rate in the future. I believe that this is one stat that you can take stock in when evaluating prospects because it eliminates the people behind the mound. This is all on the pitcher.

There are some concerns when it comes to Marshall thou. I would like his strike out rate to be higher. The strikeout rate is one reason that at AAA Zach McAllister a similar prospect failed. McAllister went from a top 10 Yankee prospect to a player to be named later guy in the Austin Kearns trade. Brett can help himself and not fall into the same trap and that is sharpen up his slider. Improving the slider will give him a very good strikeout weapon to go along with an improving change up. Innings are also a concern for Marshall since he missed a year in development. But for the Yankees that isn’t too much of a concern because they can be patient with him because of the pitching that is starting to creep into the upper minors.

Now while he has some concerns there is a ton to really like. In my mind one major plus going for Marshall is how he has developed a manipulation of his fastball. While his 2 seam fastball was 89-91 what I really liked was from Mike’s scouting report is that he was able to sink it and cut it. Being able to move the ball different ways keeps hitters off balance which is what pitching is all about. Throw that he can run his 4 seam fastball up to 94-95 it makes his fastball play up. While Marshall has good fastball velocity he doesn’t have that big fastball that some prospect watchers want. With that being said I will take a guy who can manipulate the ball over a big fastball. Greg Maddux was a great pitcher because of that ability not because of huge velocity. The ability to change eye levels something Marshall also did while Mike was scouting him shows his pitching IQ which bodes well for his maturation as a pitcher and a very good prospect.

Coming into this year Marshall had fallen out of Baseball America’s top 30 prospects. I think with his performance in the sally I think he will definitely jump back into the mix. My guess is that Marshall will come in at the back end of the teens because of a deep Yankee farm system. That ranking isn’t being disrespectful to Marshall, it is just showing how good the Yankee farm system is.

Next year could be the year that Marshall really breaks out too because it will be his 2nd year from his Tommy John surgery. Even if Marshall never develops into an ace of a team like the Yankees there is a ton of value in mid rotation guys. I can’t wait to see what Marshall does in High A next year. With a good first half he could make a push for a AA spot by the end o the season.

Zach Greinke

With the report today that Zach Greinke might be willing to waive his no trade to come to New York I will admit I was very excited. Let me explain that I’ve seen Greinke pitch in person probably 10 times. I live here in KC and thanks to my best friend working for a radio affiliate of the Royals I get to go to games for free. In those starts I’ve seen a guy who dominates hitters and has more talent than almost any starter.

A lot is being made of his social anxiety disorder and how he might get messed up with a large market team. I think this point is being way overblown. I think this is being overblown for a number of reasons. One is that when Greinke walked away he was 22 years old. That was 4 seasons ago and Greinke is now 5 years old. Age matures people and another major thing happened to Greinke is that he got married. I think this will help him out a lot. The 2nd major point is that Greinke wants to win now more than ever. He kinda quit on KC this year and he from indications wants to be a winner. He is tired of being the central’s Felix Hernandez a guy who has to throw a no no to get a win.

One major thing to consider about Greinke is that he is going to be playing this coming season as a 27 year old. He is just entering his prime and if the Yankees would acquire him and I assume sign him to an extension so that he would play a majority of his prime or his entire prime in NY.
Looking at what Greinke has given to the Royals if you average his last 4 seasons he has provided 24 million in value. I would say going into his prime years you could say he would perform 30 million each year in value for next year. Greinke is signed for just 13.5 million over the next year so his contract is very team friendly for the value he provides. So you would have to give them a ton of value which is something the Yankees with a top 10 farm system should be able to do. So here is my proposal to the Royals for their ace.

From reports the Royals want a starting pitching prospect or young starter at the MLB level who could step in and be the next Greinke. The package I would start with is obviously Jesus Montero. The Yankees best prospect is also a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. His bat is MLB ready and he would provide the Royals with a guy to protect Billy Butler in the lineup. Next would be Brett Gardner. He is a guy the Royals had been interested in the past. The Royals need a centerfielder and Gardner could do that. The last year he was a 5 win player according to Fangraphs and provided 21.6 in value. I will say that Brett regresses a bit but with moving to CF with his defense and offense ability he should be a 4 win player next year. I would offer up either Brackman or Dellin to the Royals which would give the Royals the young starting pitching prospect that they are looking for. I would add in Ivan Nova as a back end of the rotation starter who could fill in right now. The last piece for Greinke straight up would be David Adams. Of all the position players in the Yankee’s farm system I think he has the highest floor.

I think this is a package that the Royals would really like for a number of reasons. It fills a lot of needs that they have for position players and in starting pitching. The Royals think that their window is over a year away and all of these players would have a ton of team control years which is what the Royals have done recently by trading some of their veteran players for players who are under team control for a long time. Look at the Dejusus trade, they got barely nothing for him. I think the draft picks would have been better than the guys they got except that those 2 guys are control at the MLB level for years.

If the Royals do agree to this trade if I was the Yankees I would try to add another piece and get something from the Royals. I would trade Joba for Alex Gordon. This would get Joba out of NY which is something I think very badly needs to happen. Both players look to me to be guys who could thrive with a change of scenery. This would also give the Yankees a left fielder to put into the outfield and a guy who could backup Alex if he needed a day off. It also is a lefty bat that Kevin Long could really work with. The Royals could put Joba into the rotation again or do what I’ve heard they are intrigued with and that is put Soria into the rotation. There have been rumblings that the front office wants to do that and Soria does seem to have the stuff to start this would also give the Royals an ace to replace Greinke that’s already in house.

I think this trade makes a ton of sense also for the Yankees. While they love Jesus’ bat it seems to most prospect observers that the Yankees don’t have a ton of faith in him catching long term. Catching is a position of strength for the Yankees along with starting pitching. I think giving up either Dellin or Brackman doesn’t hurt the Yankees because Manny B isn’t traded. He is the one guy in the minors who I would have a problem with giving up because of his increase in velocity to go along with his pitchability. While the trading of the prospects hurts the farm system with a deep draft the Yankees should be able to restock it with 2 picks probably falling in the first 50 picks. So I ask you world what do you think of my thinking?

A look back.

In one of my last posts before life got in the way I looked at a hitter and pitcher at each level. Let’s see if I knew anything.

AAA
- Hitter. Jesus Montero. Wow I went all out with this pick. In my defense thou there was no one else at the AAA level to really pick. Montero’s triple slash line was the following .289/.353/.517. Extremely impressive stuff for a guy who was 20 for the whole season. His walk rate in 09 was 7.38%, in 10 was 9.12 which is good for one of the youngest players at AAA. While Montero did strike out more than double his total from last year I am not too concerned. Overall a great year for Montero
- Pitcher – Zach McAllister. Wow terrible pick. McAllister dropped off the prospect map almost. In every aspect except one did Zach have a terrible year, he had more innings then he had before 149.2 actually. Whip in 09 was 1.083, in 2010 1.537, K/9 was 7.1 in 09 to 6.0 in 2010. ERA in 2009 was 2.23 which is a good, 5.29 in 2010. Overall a terrible season for Zach and oh ya they shipped him off to Cleveland.
AA
- Hitter – David Adams. I wanted to see if the 2nd half surge that Adams had wasn’t a fluke. It sure wasn’t. Adams was derailed by a very bad ankle sprain that turned out to be broken. Only bad part of Adams season was he got 173 at bats but his triple slash line was this, .309/.393/.507. Strike out rate for Adams was 15.4% in 2009, 2010 it was 17.9% but the way he was scolding the ball I don’t have a problem with his. His walk rate was 10.7% for 2009 while his walk rate in 2010 was 10.4% so roughly the same. Out of all the hitters in the Yankees farm system I think Adams has the defensive ability to be average which means he should be an average MLB player. Not too bad for a 3rd round pick.

- Pitcher – DJ Mitchell. Mitchell had a good season, not great just good which is fine. I don’t think he will be a starter going forward as lefties continued to hurt him. His K rate did jump up in AAA but it was only 17 innings. If he can limit lefties and keep his K rate over 7 I think he might be a starter, the problem is his change up isn’t developing. Mitchell should compete to be the #8 starter of the Yankees.

A+
- Hitter – Abe Almonte. An injury season for Almonte. When he was out there it wasn’t great thou. Good luck next year Abe, you’ve been a favorite of mine for a few years. Please put all that talent together next year. Be the Melky Mesa of 2011.

- Pitcher – Jairo Heredia. He has now fallen off the Yankees radar and the prospect map. 2 years in a row he has shown up to camp out of shape. He is now a reliever in the Yankees mind and I’ve lost all faith in him going forward. Bad pick Jake.


A-
- Hitter – Slade Heathcott. For being a teenager in Low A Slade did a good job. I would have liked a little more power but he had a bump left shoulder that he had operated on after the season. Slade had a triple slash line of .258/.359/.352. The power wasn’t there but a .359 OBP as a teen is impressive. I would like to see Slade cut down on his K rate while hitting for some power. Hopefully the Yankees aren’t too bullish with Slade. Send him back down to Low A to start the year then go to High A after a month or 2.

- Pitcher – Nik Turley. A personal favorite of mine didn’t make to Low A still. He pitched in Staten Island for the first time and was ok. Not great just ok. I want to see them turn the big guy lose but I think the Yankees know something that I don’t. He is a large guy so maybe they are still working on his mechanics.

Looking at the guys I picked I will pat myself on the back for picking Adams. If he had stayed healthy for the whole season he would have gotten to AAA. He also probably would have been the best AA player for the Yankees based on everything. I will not give myself credit for picking Jesus, it was a pretty easy pick. Slade also was a pretty easy pick but I should get a little credit for that one. Almonte is a pass because of the injury. On the pitching side to say I sucked it up is being kind. Mitchell had a decent year but not great. Every other guy sucked or didn’t pitch for the level I thought. Hopefully next March I can do a little better with my picks.

Matt Harvey

Baseball season starts in 6 days and I’m pumped. While I love college basketball after the first weekend of the tourney my excitement goes down. Luckily this year the tourney was very good but now baseball season is starting Sunday. College and high school baseball has been going on for a little bit now. It’s 10 weeks away from the draft. So I will be looking at players that I think the Yankees could draft
Usually the Yankees get in the first round players who struggled because of injuries or other concerns. But one guy who I think is rising to the Yankees is Matt Harvey of UNC.

Matt Harvey was drafted in 07 by the Angels in the 3rd round. He was considered a 1st round talent but because of signability concerns he dropped in the draft. With Scott Boras as his agent/advisor he ended up following up on his commitment to UNC.

When he went to UNC most draft experts thought that he would be a top 5 pick easily in this draft. Some thought that he would be the #1 pick if he pitched to his ability at UNC. His freshman year helped him keep those thoughts there. Pitching mostly out of the starting rotation Harvey started 16 games with 3 games out of the pen. He pitched to a total of 67.2 innings with a 6.9 H/9, 6.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/p. He backed those stats up with a 1.46 WHIP and a 2.79 ERA. All of those numbers were great except the walks but that is something that can be improved on.

On the way to being a top 5 a big problem happened, it’s called sophomore year. Harvey got into 21 total games with 13 of them coming in the starting fashion. In those starts and games Harvey got 75 innings problem is he wasn’t very good in those innings. 10.6 H/9, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9. Those stats gave Harvey a 1.73 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA. The only improvement was in BB/9 but he did keep his K/9 almost at 10.
Coming into this year most draft experts thought Harvey would need a HUGE year to get higher than a late 2nd round pick. So far he hasn’t disappointed. 39 innings in over 6 starts Harvey has put up some dominating #’s. He has struck out 48 batters for an 11 K/9 to go along with a 1.85 ERA. His walk rate has lowered to 4.6 per 9 while still bad has improved.

Stuff wise Harvey has been flashing a mid 90’s fastball sitting in the low 90’s along with a plus curveball and an average change up. His height and weight are good for a starting pitcher being 6’4” weighting in as 225 lbs. I haven’t seen any video of Harvey pitch so I can’t give an opinion on his mechanics but guys who flash those pitches are nice to have.

The Boras factor is going to up his price but Harvey is the type of guy the Yankees don’t normally get in the draft. He struggled and those are the type of players that the Yanks go after. Legit top 5 guys don’t fall to the Yankees unless they have a big injury concern or have other concerns. The concern with Harvey is that he won’t ever be able to keep his stuff on check. His walk rate is a big concern but I have faith in the Yankees staff to fix that.

If the Yankees could get Harvey it would be a big boom to their farm system. While he would be a college pitcher I think he would need more time than other college pitchers because they would be working on his command. Harvey definitely is name to keep an eye on over the next 10 weeks.

Hitters and Pitchers

So the blog has taken a backseat to life right now. I just finished buying a house so I’m in the process of packing for the move which will take place in mid April. Also with the wife being prego I’ve had to do a bunch of stuff also. I’ve kicked ideas around for multiple blog posts and I’ve started research into a bunch of things I want to write about. The problem is finding time while doing all these other things and working. So I’m sorry for the lack of updates. I will be posting more now thou because it is an escape from all the hassle of everything else. So here we go.
In this blog post what I want to cover is a hitter and pitcher at each Yankee affiliate that people should be looking into.

AAA

Hitter: Jesus Montero. The guy is the best prospect in the Yankee system and I would say he has the biggest gap from his ceiling and the next guy. I have no doubts about Jesus’ hitting ability. I believe he will crush pitching. The biggest concern is now he is at a level where Yankee pitchers are going to be paying attention to runners so they won’t be getting great jumps off the pitchers. It is now where we see if Jesus will be able to throw out runners. If he can just be a slightly below average defender then his bat will play up hugely.

Pitcher: Zach McAllister. Zach is the best pitching prospect which is in the upper minors. In the last two seasons he has pitched extremely well. It would be nice to see that continue. I want to see him continue refining his secondary stuff. BA keeps changing it’s scouting report on him. Last year they said he had a plus fastball when you consider his movement and velocity with his secondary pitching lagging behind. Now they say he throw s an average fastball but has a plus slider. I would like to have Zach keep his k/9 over 7.

AA

Hitter: David Adams. Austin is the 2nd best prospect in the Yankees system so I’m not worried about him. David Adams had a breakout season last year. I want to see if the changes he made to his swing are legit or not. If David Adams keeps up this performance in AA he will push himself into the top 10 easily of the Yankee prospects. I want to see the same hitting and keep his solid defense up there.

Pitcher: DJ Mitchell. DJ did a very good job pitching this last year at Charleston and Tampa. The only problem for DJ is splits against left handed hitters. He needs to develop a change up to keep them off his sinker and curveball. If he can develop that pitch and keep lefties from not killing him his prospect status can go up from a Justin Masterson to a #4 starter.

A+

Hitter: Abe Almonte. Abe has some great tools and was a top 30 prospect until he had a terrible year in 08. He rebounded somewhat to put up some respectable numbers. With the Yankees lacking a lot of outfield prospects with big ceilings especially getting into the upper minors Abe could really help his case with a big season. I could see the Yankees being aggressive with Abe this year if he starts off Tampa with a big first half.

Pitcher: Jairo Heredia. Jairo really had a down year mostly because of injuries. He came to camp last year out of shape and it showed. He dominated in 08 the Sally league. Before Jairo had the down 08 Mike at RAB called him the Dominican Phil Hughes because Jairo struck out a ton of hitters and got a ton of groundballs. If Jairo comes to camp in good shape with his fastball being more consistent in it’s velocity he could really jump up into top 15 category for the Yankees.

A-

Hitter: Slade Heathcott. He has one of the highest ceilings in the system. Also when you invest a 1st round pick and give him $2.2 million bonus you expect much. Staying healthy is one major thing for Slade since he has fought some injuries the last year. I would love to see a healthy Slade put up some big numbers. If he puts up the numbers he is capable of he will be a top 100 prospect in baseball.

Pitcher: Nik Turley. The guy to me has a good upside from the left side. Also big projectable guys are a flaw to most prospect watchers. Turley was in short season last year and pitched pretty well. I want to see what he can do in full season and while he is raw I think he will do well. If he does I could see him spend all year in Low A this year and split next year between High A and AA. The Yankees didn’t just give a six figure bonus to a 50th rounder unless they thought he had talent.


So there you go people. Those are guys that I will be watching closely this year in the full season leagues. I will be doing one of these for SS and GCL closer to the start of those seasons. Also it will be interesting to see which 09 draft picks made the jump from full season to short season. Baseball is almost here. I know I can’t wait.

Projecting players

One of the main things that organizations look at is present tools and skills but they also keep an eye on the future. Most scouts grade their present tools along with what their future tools should be when they get to the majors. They draft and sign kids who has the potential in their eyes to gain something. The problem with this is that I believe more times than it doesn’t translate.
Here are a couple examples.

When the Yankees drafted Zach McAllister a lot of people thought that when he would add mass and muscle to his frame that he would throw harder. Well fast forward 3 seasons of data and he has stayed at the same velocity. Most people were in love with the idea that Zach would throw harder. The guy is 6’6” which is a large player. A lot of people think that the bigger you are the harder you will throw and that isn’t always the case.

Austin Jackson is another player that people projected very well. After he blew up in Tampa most prospect experts thought that he would develop 15-20 hr power. He slugged .566 at Tampa, since then his slugging % has been .419, .405. So his power numbers have gone down each year. I believe that this was one of the main reasons that the Yankees traded him.

Now I’m not saying that players don’t get better or that the Yankees should draft differently. There are some players who got better. Jesus Montero is one of them. When Jesus was signed he had the potential to have a 80 power when he matured. Well in this year’s BA prospect handbook they write that Montero is almost there right now so he has developed.

Arodys Vizcaino is one guy who did mature under the Yankees. When they signed him he threw around 90 mph. He was touching 96 when they traded him to the braves with Melky. He also grew 2 inches.

So players do get better and do improve but not all the time. Some players aren’t going to throw harder and in fact some players actually throw harder in high school than in the pro’s. Tyler Clippard is one of those players. Mostly this is because in high school pitchers throw once a week so they have more days to rest. I do think that this is one reason that the Yankees tend to draft college pitchers. They know more about how they are going to throw. If they need a mechanical chance they will make it and sometimes that helps. It helped 2 Yankee farm hands in Jose Ramirez and David Phelps. Both gained velocity this year.

All I’m saying is that when we see these kids throwing in the low 90’s we get thoughts that in 2-3 years that they will be sitting mid 90’s. Most of the time that just doesn’t happen.

Yankee pitching prospects by ceiling

Last week I looked at the Yankees and position players looking for areas of weakness. Now I’m going to do the same thing with the starting rotation.

Number 1 starters don’t grow on trees. Good thing for the Yankees they have 1 signed for some time. C.C is a legit #1 with the added benefit of pitching 220 innings a season. C.C gives the Yankees both a #1 starter potential along with workhorse innings. C.C is locked up at least through 2011. I don’t think he will opt out of his contract thou, I say this because at that point his deal will be 23 million a year. No one is going to pay him that much money especially when Halladay just signed an extension at 20 million. I do see C.C getting an extension to lock him in for a couple more years but this is getting off the subject. In the minors the Yankees have 2 guys who profile as front of the rotation starters. Those two pitchers being Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman with the bad part being that neither is more than a 5% chance of reaching that potential. Brackman has the better chance but after this year I don’t see it. Remember this is their ceiling, their floor is to never make the majors and both look more that way now.

Number 2 starter is AJ Burnett. AJ is locked up through the 2013 season. A number two starter is suppose to have 2 plus pitches with average command and an average third pitch. In the Yankees minor league system I think there are 2 guys who could fill that role. 1 of them is Manny Banuelos. Manny will need to sharpen up his breaking ball and changeup along with a consistent fastball. Some see Manny more of a mid rotation starter but Frankie P at AOL Fanhouse profiled Manny as a #2 starter believing that his velocity will be more consistent with both offspeed pitches improving. I would say Manny has the best poise of any Yankee farm hand which is an intangible that isn’t taught. The second pitcher in the minor who could fill that is Jose Ramirez blew up this year even thou BA doesn’t rank him in the top 20 of the Yankees system. I believe this is because he hasn’t pitched in full season ball yet other than a relief appearance with Tampa. Velocity is great on his fastball and he flashed a plus plus change up according to Kiley M formerly of BP. 2 plus pitches is what is needed and he would have that. An average breaking ball is all that Ramirez needs now along with polish and innings.

Number 3 starter for the Yankees is Andy Pettitte. Andy is going to pitch for who knows how many years. I like that he goes year by year which helps the Yankees especially in their development. The Yankees have a number of guys who profile to do what Andy does which is give a bunch of quality innings. The number one guy who can do that is Zach McAllister. He is a big kid who has 2 good pitches with very good command. I do think nationally he gets a little undervalued because he doesn’t blow up the radar gun. In the last two years he has 2.09 ERA in 08 between Low A and High A and a 2.23 ERA in AA. Also his WHIP the last 2 years was 1.075 in 08 and 1.083 in AA. His K rate actually improved in AA over High A also.

Number 4-5 starters. Javy Zasquez and (Joba or Phil) are the starters. Javy will only be here for 1 year unless he dominates and only wants to play for the Yankees. Joba or Phil will both be here for some time. I think these type of starters are the same and the Yankees have guys who can fill these positions very easily, in fact after 2010 they could both be the number four and five starters. If they don’t fill that role names that could come up for that is Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Hector Noesi or Jairo Heredia. All of these guys project to be number 4 or number 5 starters with some having a little more ceiling.

Overall the Yankees have done a very good job pitching wise compared to the hitter’s side. I’m not including Joba or Phil as prospects because their status as prospects is now gone. Joba has legit #1 type stuff if he can harness it and get velocity back on his fastball. Phil has number 2 type stuff so really the Yankees are in a great place. Pitching is something that every team needs a lot of because starters get hurt, a lot. One I didn’t place was Jeremy Bleich mostly because right now his ceiling is up in the air. If his velocity jump is legit then he has more of a #2 type starter with his plus change up and average curve or flip flopping those rankings based on the scout. If his velocity jump is not real and he goes back to where he was in college then his ceiling is a #3 guy which is not bad.

Why most people want top of the rotation starters for every starting pitching prospect that just isn’t realistic. If you look at the ones the Yankees have they both have floors that are super low. Most guys who are legit # 1’s don’t fall to the Yankees or if they do it’s because they have warts. Brackman and Dellin both have some big warts. What you want from your SP prospects is to get big leaguers to fill your roster. You want that most of all because they are cheap and provide huge $$ value for the team.

What the Yankees need to draft.

The Yankees have spent more money on the draft in recent years and have been a lot more aggressive when it comes to overslot guys. While I’m more of the mindset that you should draft the best player available I do think the Yankees lack in certain areas. Catchers are a huge plus for the Yankees, starting pitching depth also is a strength of the Yankees farm system. Looking at the contracts on the books lets see where the Yankees need to draft guys.

1st Base: Mark Teixera will be the first baseman to 2016. No need to draft a guy for that position. They do have Jesus Montero who probably will need to be a 1st baseman by the end of that contract.

2nd Base: Robbie Cano is locked up through the 2013 season. It’s safe to say that the Yankees won’t need a 2nd baseman also for some time. Yankees do have David Adams in the minors who could play 2nd base in a few years if he continues to develop.

SS: Derek Jeter is only signed for this year. Many people feel that he will sign a three to four year contract. I too believe that he won’t get a longer contract than 4 years. While he might get that I do wonder how many more years he can play SS. I think Jeter can play SS for 3-4 more years. Right now the farm system is barren when it comes to SS prospects. I’m not a huge fan of Nunez or any of the other prospects who are at SS.

3rd base: A-Rod is probably going to be the 3rd baseman for some time, 2017 in fact. I do wonder how long A-Rod can play 3rd base but even if he only plays for 5 more years at 3rd base the Yankees won’t need anyone at the hot corner until then. The Yankees do have a few 3rd base prospects most notably is Bradley Suttle who even thou had a lost season is a legit 3rd base prospect who could jump back into a top 10 prospect list for the Yankees.

Catcher: Jorge Posada has 2 more years left on his contract. I do think this will be the last year for Posada full time behind the plate. They have Frankie Cervelli who is a great defender and who could be a backup for a number of years. After him they have Montero who could be ready to catch in the bigs full time after this season. Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy ( who Jim Callis said might turn out to be the best catcher in the system) all could play catcher within 4 years.

Outfield: 2 spots are locked up for the Yankees. Swisher is signed through 2012 if they pick up his option. Curtis Granderson has an option for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Two of the three outfield spots are locked up long term. In the minors the Yankees have no one close to being MLB ready. Kevin Deleon will start in full season ball this year along with Slade Heathcott. Abe Almonte is the only player who will play above low A this year who has a legit shot to being a big leaguer. I say this because I want to see how the college OF’s the Yankees drafted do in full season ball.

So the Yankees do need to address some of these faults. I do think that Slade could be ready by the time Granderson’s contract is done. SS is the most pressing but as I say that the Yankees could always trade for a young SS with prospects in other areas. Prospects can either be used to fill a need or trade for a need. I think we will see the Yankees try to find a SS that they think can move up the system quickly. OF depth also is an area of need but it could be better if any of the college OF’s that the Yankees drafted emerge as legit options.

2006 draft

2006 is the draft that really restocked the Yankee farm system. The Yankees spent 6.7 million dollars on the 2006 draft. While other years since then the Yankees have spent more money on the draft this is the year where it all seemed to have come together. So I wanted to take a look at each of the guys drafted, see how much the Yankees have gotten in return and really evaluate the draft.
Here is a list of the players drafted, numbers in parenthesis are the draft round.

Ian Kennedy (1)
Joba Chamberlain (1S)
Zach McAllister (3)
Colin Curtis (4)
George Kontos (5)
Mitch Hilligoss (6)
Tim Norton (7)
Dellin Betances (8)
Mark Melancon (9)
Casey Erickson (10)
Seth Fortenberry (11)
Nick Peterson (12)
Dan McCutchen (13)
D.J. Hollingsworth (14)
Gabe Medina (15)
Paul David Patterson (16)
David Robertson (17)
Chris Kunda (19)
Kevin Russo (20)
Russell Raley (21)
Brian Aragon (22)
Brandon Thompson (23)
Brian Baisley (24)
Tim Dennehy (26)
B rock Ungricht (30)
Luke Trubee (33)
Tim O’Brien (37)
Nick Diyorio (38)
Kevin Smith (39)
James Lasala (44)
Chase Odenreider (49)

So those were all the players that were drafted by the Yankees. I’m going to use WAR to evaluate value of the player. I will also subtract the players salary from the MLB level not the minor league level.

1. Ian Kenney according from Fangraphs is $1.6 million He also earned $803,200 one season in salary along with his signing bonus
2. Joba Chamberlain according from Fangraphs has given the Yankees $25.3 million in value with $822,575 in salary.
3. Mark Melancon has contributed $200k in value and Cot’s doesn’t have what his salary was during the year because he didn’t break camp and wasn’t up very much. I’m going to say he cost $100k in salary.
4. David Robertson has given the Yankees $4.8 million in value. Cot’s had his value for 09 as $406,825 in salary for 09, for 08 I’m going to say another $200k in salary.

What is crazy is that only 4 of the guys have made the majors from the 06 draft. That is 3 years of time for players to get to the show. Out of these picks the Yankees can still add value also. Zach McAllister will probably be the 2nd guy called up from the minors because of injury. Dellin still has a legit ceiling of a number 1 if he is healthy and get’s his walks under control. Kontos could bounce back and be a decent middle reliever. Kevin Russo might also be a future utility man.

Dan McCutchen also helped bring Xavier Nady to the Yankees. Nady contributed WAR value to the Yankees and I’m going to take 20% of his prorated value minus salary. That adds 1.16 in WAR value minus his salary.
So how do the numbers stack up? This draft class has contributed $33.06 million in value to the Yankees. It has cost them $8,625,775 in salary and signing bonus. This also doesn’t take into account minor league salaries for players. So the Yankees have gotten 4 times the value from the signing bonuses and salary of these players that they drafted. Also keep in mind that they used Kennedy as a big part of the Granderson trade too.

Now Joba contributed 75% of the total value of the WAR. I do think that this will change with Robertson, Melancon and McAllister helping out. I would say that if the Yankees got 4 times the value of what they spent 3 years later that they would spend more on the draft. For a draft junky I would like this a lot.

Jesus Montero or TEH JESUS!!!!

Sorry about the lack of updating. The wife and I are trying to sell our place while looking for a new one. Lots of house work to make sure that our house sells quickly. Now back to prospects.


Jesus is the crown jewel in the Yankee farm system. An elite bat that according to most scouts will play anywhere. BA said he had an 80 contact with an 80 power. That is elite of the elite. Only downside is Montero is supposed to have below average defense. I wonder if he could eventually be a 40 defender which would be below MLB average.

Montero’s bat has been compared to Mike Piazza. This is a truly scary thing for teams in the AL East who would have to face Montero multiple times. I say that because looking at Piazza’s numbers they are truly scary for opponents of the Yankees. His OPS + was 144 for his career, that is amazing.
On the downside Piazza wasn’t very good defensively. This is another reason that Montero get’s the Piazza comparison. Piazza allowed a ton of SB and only caught over 30% once in his career. He was considered to give up on average 5.4 runs a year on his defense. Piazza was big behind the plate and wasn’t a good receiver. Something that Montero according to scouts

It’s hard to see Piazza’s skills would be total since the stat WAR doesn’t go that far back and doesn’t include defense. That being said if Montero could be 120-130 OPS + player then the Yankees will be happy. He would be Jorge Posada. Something that Yankee fans have had no problem with even thou most would say Posada is a 40 defender.

The funny thing about Posada is that he developed late in his career. Looking at his minor stats Posada only did 1 thing better than Montero, that being drawing walks. His minor league walk to strikeout ratio was a lot better than Montero. Other than that Montero was the better hitter. I do think that Montero could end up being a 130-135 OPS + guy. Even if he gave up an average of 5 runs for his defense I think that the Yankees would take that.

Montero also could improve defensively. Hearing from Yankee brass the kid seems to take his defense faults personally and works very hard on that. I don’t take the SB numbers very seriously in the minors because most pitchers down there don’t hold runners on well. This year should be the year where we see how good or bad Montero is defensively concerning the running game. AAA guys are a lot better of holding men on 1st base. Also Baseball America has said his defense has improved each year. That is a positive that I think the Yankees take to heart.

In the end Montero only has to catch until he can shift to 1st base or permanent DH, something that probably would be at age 27. By then he would have started to lose some athleticism that his body has. Getting 6 years of catching from the guy wouldn’t be bad with his bat. The guy is a masher and I think it will play anywhere.

Frankie P's top 100 prospects

Here is Frankie's list of the top 100 prospects

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/the-top-100-prospects-of-2010-1-25/

Here is the link to Frankie's chat.

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/live-chat-top-100-prospects-edition/

Frankie is one of the best guys to talk to concerning prospects. He was a scout in the Texas organization. Frankie also ran SaberScouting with Kiley M formerly of Baseball Prospectus.

Jesus was the top Yankee prospect at #5. During his chat Frankie said that Montero was ahead of where Mike Piazza was at this stage.

Other Yankees that made the list was Manny Banuelos at 41, Austin Romine at 45 and Zach McAllister at 76.

Frankie had Manny B at 90-93 with the potential of 2 plus offspeed pitches. Saying his ceilling is a #2 starter. Also a guy who just missed was Jeremy Bleich who Frankie is very high on. He had him at 101 and was in the top 100 but Aroldis Chapman pushed him off.

Read the list and the chat. Then go and follow Frankie on twitter, his stuff is top notch.

2010 Draft

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/early-draft-preview/2009/268869.html

Here is a link to BA's top 25 college and high school players entering the 2010 draft. This is before spring ball so things can change a ton.

Looking at the list the #1 college player is Bryce Harper on the college side. On the prep side it's Jameson Tallion. As of right now I don't see any way either of these guys fall to the Yankees. Harper is getting a lot of negative press but this is mostly because the expectations and hype for him was too large. Now it's swinging the other way.

Right now there is a ton of mock drafts out there but it's so hard to see what will happen during the spring and the draft is over 4 months away. Anyone who is picking more then the top 3 is just speculating. Last year Grant Green was suppose to be the #1 position prospect on the college side. He fell because the play on the field which can happen to any prospect not just a prep one.

Signability is always a case for players in college but more so with prep players. Right now advisors(agents really) won't be floating numbers for some time. So as of right now do I see any of the top prospects falling? No. Not until we see how things happen.

Now onto the prospect I want. It's #2 on the prep side, AJ Cole. To some Tallion is the #1 pitching prospect in the whole draft. He has a lot of Josh Beckett in him. He is 6'6" which is great side. A big fastball explodes out of his hand. But I would rather have Cole. He has room to grow in his frame. Seeing him pitch he reminds me of Justin Verlander, always a plus.

He is who I want if the Yankees can draft him but as of right now I don't see anyone falling. Not until spring ball starts and advisors start floating #'s.

Budget

That word is something that Yankee fans don’t like. But for the first time in recent memory the big league club is having one. Last year we heard from Damon Oppenheimer that the Yankees had given him a budget for last year’s draft. He did give this interview with Lane Meyer (formerly of Nomaas). I can’t link to the post because Nomaas has taken down the draft portion of their site when Lane left.

I remember reading the word budget and being shocked. Yankees and the word budget you don’t see in the same sentence. I thought it would affect their draft yet it really didn’t. They signed plenty of over slot guys that they liked. 2009 was the first year that there was a budget and I think that going forward that they should have a budget.

Now I say that but I want to let it be known that it should be a soft budget. I believe that going into the draft each year the Yankees should have a draft budget of 8 million. A max budget of 11 million that if a player the talent of Rick Porcello falls to them. This would let the Yankees sign high ceiling HS talent in the later rounds along with draft eligible sophomores.

From what I’ve been able to ask draft guys in chats, this is what most thought the Yankees should do. I also think having a budget might give the teams and league less leverage when it comes to a hard slotting system. As I noted the Yankees haven’t been the biggest spenders in the draft over the years and once all the amounts spent in 2009 I will update that again. By having a budget around what other teams have had they aren’t giving team’s fuel to the fire of a hard slotting system.

Going into this year’s draft I want the Yankees to spend 8 million on the draft but I could see that number going up if they believe a hard slotting system will come in. A hard slotting system would limit the Yankees on spending in the later rounds where they look for elite talent. I do think 2010 and 2011 will be the last two years for sure that there isn’t a hard slotting system. I could see the Yankees try to spend the money to restock the farm system that has gone down slightly because of the trades that were made. I think we won’t know what the Yankees truly will do until the draft comes. It should be a lot of fun thou to speculate on who could fall to them and how much they will be spend.

Draft Order

First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Pirates
3. Orioles
4. Royals
5. Indians
6. Diamondbacks
7. Mets
8. Astros
9. Padres
10. Athletics
11. Blue Jays
12. Reds
13. White Sox
14. Brewers
15. Rangers (for failure to sign 2009 first-rounder Matt Purke)
16. Cubs
17. Rays
18. Angels (from Mariners for Chone Figgins, A)
19. Astros (from Tigers for Jose Valverde, A)
20. Red Sox (from Braves for Billy Wagner, A)
21. Twins
22. Rangers
23. Marlins
24. Giants
25. Cardinals
26. Rockies
27. Phillies
28. Dodgers
29. Angels (from Red Sox for John Lackey, A)
30. Angels
31. Rays (for failure to sign 2009 first-rounder LeVon Washington)
32. Yankees

So the Yankees will pick 32nd since there are no more Type A Free Agents who turned down arbitration. You could see the Angels really try to restock their farm system with 3 picks before the Yankees. If signability guys fall I could see the Angels going after them because if they lost 1 they would get the picks next year.

The Red Sox also pick pretty early at 20th. The whole Billy Wagner thing was terrible and so wrong. No way should he have been a Type A free agent. The system is pretty flawed.

A Look Back

I picked up BA’s 07 prospect book off my shelf today and I thought I would do a look back at the top 10 prospects of that year. Also would give BA’s ceiling and if they have reached that as of yet plus what I think of the prospects.


1.) Phil Hughes. Hughes was the top pitching prospect in the minors. I’m not going to give that to Dice K since he never spent any time in the minors. Hughes ceiling was that of an ace pitcher, a legit # 1 starter. His ceiling has diminished slightly mostly because of some injuries that seem to have sapped a little velocity. Now he looks like a very good #2 starter. He will compete this year for the #5 spot with Joba.

2.) Jose Tabata. BA was always very high on Jose. They said he could reach the majors by the end of 2008. Tabata was the main piece that the Pirates got in the Nady trade. His prospect status has taken a hit also. Good but not great seasons and a lack of power seem to have cooled Jose’s prospect status from elite to very good. BA was also wrong, 2009 came without Tabata making it to the majors. He probably will go back to AAA this year to work on his game.

3.) Humberto Sanchez. The key piece in the Gary Sheffield trade. Humberto had wowed scouts at the future game. Sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 Humberto had the big fastball and a plus slider that gave him 2 legit big league pitches. Hungry hungry Humberto was probably his downfall. He never could keep his weight in check and it probably lead to his injuries also. He pitched last year for a grand total of 35.2 innings. Big bust but the Yankees did get rid of Sheffield’s salary so that is a plus.

4.) Dellin Betances. Dellin was an 8th round draft pick of the Yankees in 06. With a potential of 2 plus pitches scouts were drooling over the 6’8” giant. BA later admitted it was extremely bullish on Dellin. Dellin so far hasn’t gotten past High A Tampa and also hasn’t been healthy with 2 injuries in 3 years. His ceiling is still that of a top rotation starter but no one knows if he will be able to master a repeatable delivery to make it there.

5.) Joba Chamberlain. Either he will be a front line starter or a closer. We won’t debate which but for the $1.1 million signing bonus the Yankees got a steal. A drop in velocity has cooled some people on Joba but I’m of the opinion that it was Joba pushing past his innings high and the Yankees handling of him. Think of it like this, Joba has cost the Yankees roughly $2.3 million in salary and signing bonus. He has generated $25.3 million in value according to fangraphs.

6.) Ian Kennedy. Most people hated this pick from the Yankees. I think that the Yankees knew that Joba was going to fall more and they could take him a little later. While Joba’s ceiling was huge Kennedy was a #3 starter. He had great #’s at USC against really good competitions. He got a little overhyped at one point but his ceiling is still a #3 starter but not in the AL East. He was a part of the trade to bring Granderson to NY so I would call the investment in him well worth it. He will probably be given every opportunity to be the Diamondbacks #4 starter.

7.) Tyler Clippard. Another Yankee prospect that got overhyped but this was by the fans more so then the media. Tyler actually threw harder in HS then in the minors. He was traded to Washington and finally made the majors for good last year. While he did finally make the majors he was a starter in the minors so his value is lower. With that being said he threw 60 innings last year and pitched well having a K/9 of 10.

8.) J. Brent Cox. Being drafted in 2005 in the 2nd round of the draft. The Texas longhorns closer after Houston Street left had lots of Yankee fans and other people thinking he would be the closer of the future. He was always better suited for a setup role better then a closer because while he has the mental make up to close games in college his stuff wasn’t closer material in the majors. J.B never made the majors and appears to have left the game of baseball.

9.) Kevin Whelan was drafted by the Tigers and shipped to the Yankees along with the Hungry Humberto in the Sheffield trade. Scouts loved 2 things of Whelan’s game. His velocity which is 92-94, it has good deception since he was a catcher before being converted to the mound. Whelan also has a plus to plus plus splitter. Problem for Whelan is that it appears he has no idea at times where the ball is going. While his K/9 is 11.4 for his career in the minors his BB/9 is 5.4 and doesn’t appear to be getting better. He probably will go back to AAA this year as a 26 year old reliever. He was rule 5 eligible and no one took Whelan. He probably won’t make it out of the minors.

10.) Brett “grit” Gardner. Gardner is either loved by Yankee fans or hated. He played a lot of time last year since he won the starting CF job from Melky. He will be given the LF job right now with his plus defense to help him out he will bat #9. The Yankees have spent less than $1.8 million on salaries for Gardner and he has given them $14.4 million in value. I would say that is a great investment. This will be a pivotal year for Gardner thou, he will either establish himself as an everyday OF or be a 4th outfield. Regardless of what happens Gardner has helped the Yankees win a championship and that is all the farm system can ask for.

So that is the top 10 prospects going into the 07 season. Looking at this list the Yankees actually did really well. They got 4 guys who made the majors out of this list. Tabata still has a chance to make the majors also. That would be a 50% hit on their top 10 prospects. I would call that pretty good. Not every prospect will ever make the majors even ones who make top 10 lists. This list could even get better if Joba becomes what scouts think and so does Hughes because of the guys who made the majors 3 of them are still 25 and under.

Fast Risers Part 1

Sorry about the lack of updates for a few days. 10 straight days at work will do that for free time. Also the wife wants some time so blogging had to take a back seat for a few days. Well I’m off for the next few days so I will be posting so don’t worry.

Adam Warren could be a fast riser in the Yankee farm system. Warren is a senior signing of the 09 draft. He was drafted in the 4th round out of powerhouse North Carolina. Warren is a smart guy graduating with a GPA of 3.36 and a degree in business.

College years:
2006: As an 18 year old freshman Warren pitched 24.1 innings, 3 games were started and he got into another 12 games. Warren had an ERA of 4.81, with 15 K’s to 13 BB’s. Not great but he was 18 years old
2007: 70 innings for this year with 12 games started getting into 3 more games. His ERA was great, 2.17. While his numbers was good it probably was somewhat luck based. 49 K’s to 28 BB’s.
2008: This was the year to jump for Warren and he fell a little flat. As a 20 year old he pitched 18 games, all starts for 83 innings total. 73 K’s to 46 BB’s for the year. His ERA was 4.23 for the year.
2009: Warren lowered his ERA to 3.31. His 103 K’s were a career high, he had 36 BB’s to go with that in 98 innings.
It’s hard to look at his stats in college because we don’t know what level of competition he was facing. He was at a powerhouse school and a good conference. There are good signs thou, his K per 9 increased every year he was in college.

H/9 BB/9 K/9 Whip
2006 10.7 4.8 5.5 1.73
2007 7.1 3.6 6.2 1.19
2008 9.3 5.0 7.9 1.59
2009 7.6 3.6 9.5 1.24

Looking at this I think that Warren has gotten better each year. Warren’s BB’s have decreased while his K rate keeps rising, this is a very good trend.
Minor League season:
2009: Warren started 12 games for Staten Island. He pitched 56.2 innings for the affiliate over the course of 12 games, all starts. His K’s at Staten Island were 50 while his walks were just 10. His ERA was 1.43 which is very good, if he had qualified with more innings his ERA would have lead the league. Warren’s WHIP was 1.04 mostly because he lowered his walk rate. This would have been in the top 10 also for the league if he had more innings.

Warren’s velocity has seen a jump starting at the half way point of his senior season. He was mostly 89-91 peaking at 92 at times. Now he is sitting 93-94 touching 95. Adam also throws a 2 seamer which got him a ton of groundballs at State Island. He also throws a changeup, curveball and slider/cutter.

Seeing Warren pitch on Youtube, he looks built well. He is listed as 6’1” to 6’3” depending on where you look. His weight is 200 to 215 lbs which is good. It’s hard to see how tall Warren is from the video but he looks as if he can handle innings on his frame. I say that because in 09 he pitched a combine 154 innings.
In an interview with Pending Pinstripes’ Greg Fertel Warren said that the Yankees want him to work on stretching and flexibility. From the interview Warren comes off as a guy who wants to get better, will work hard in the offseason to get his body in the best shape and as an intelligent guy. (Link to the whole article http://www.sportsnewsandscores.com/qa-with-new-york-yankees-pitching-prospect-adam-warren.html )

Outlook:
Warren will probably start off at High A Tampa. I could see him pitching there like Jeremy Bleich did and getting a call up after 10 to 14 starts. Being only 22 to start the season Warren could be an option for the Yankees to make a spot start at the end of next season at the earliest if he dominates hitters like Ian Kennedy did.
NY shouldn’t be worried about inning for Warren since he threw 150 this last year. Kennedy and Warren both entered their first full minor league season at the same age even thou Kennedy was drafted as a junior and Warren as a senior.

Ceiling:
It’s hard to make a good guess on Warren’s ceiling because of his velocity jump. If that is true and he pitches at those velocities it changes how he is as a prospect. If he settles back down to what his velocity was before this season it makes grading him as a prospect easier. As of this point I can’t put a grade or a ceiling on Warren. I think we need to see how he pitches and how his pitches play out. If his velocity stays where it was at Staten Island the Yankees look to have grabbed a steal with their 4th round pick since they signed him for slot $158,000. Only time will tell on Warren’s ceiling, I will give a ceiling of him after the minor league season. I will say a good player comp could be Junichi Tazawa.

How I would draft as the Yankees

Give me upside or give me death.

This is the draft philosophy that I believe that the Yankees should be using concerning the draft. The Yankees spend the most money on their actual team and you would be shocked if they didn't spend money on their draft.

From 06 through the 08 draft(09 complete draft money spent isn't out yet as far as I can find) the Yankees spent $19.8 million on those 3 drafts. That is $6.6 million per draft which is a lot of money. Yet they aren't the #1 spender on the draft in those 3 years.

The #1 team during that time was the Royals. The first big market team was the Sox at #2. The next big team was the Yankees at #8. So there was 7 teams over the Yankees who spent money on the draft. Now this also takes out the Cole not signing. That probably would have been 3 million roughly which would have put the Yankees up to $22.8 million. Even if we take that into account they are #4.

While the Yankees have spent a lot of money on the draft regardless I do think that they have not gone the extra mile for a few guys. Drew Storen was a drafted guy the Yankees couldn't get the pen to the paper. He went to the Nats at #10. I think that the Yankees should take more chances with signability guys.

This is what the Yankees did in 2006 and they got the best draft class that they have had. Since then the drafts have been hit and miss on prospects. I do think that the drafts after that can increase yet so could the 06 draft. If Dellin B stays healthy and dominates as Greg at pending pinstripes said it would be a historic draft.

This is the type of draft that the Yankees should be doing each year. I think that damon oppenheimer is very good at evaluating talent. I just think that he likes college players and pitchers better then HS. Now later in the draft when you need to fill out minor league teams I think that is fine. I would like them to go after HS talent becuase then the org can mold it instead of a college coach who has no incentive to do what is best for the kid. His job is to win games, period.

I do think the signing of Kevin Towers as a consultant will be used to help the draft process. Towers came up as a scout before being a GM. I think he has an eye for talent. Some out there might say that the Padres farm was terrible. I would argue that the owner has to want a guy farm system and if he is limiting how much he could spend on the draft.

Regardless of if Towers helps out, I want Opp to start to take a few more risks to restock the system. I do think that this year could be a pivital one for the Yankees. Their farm system probably slipped to around 20th out of all MLB teams because of the trades and guys doing nothing but putting up terrible stats. Injuries also hurt the farm this year so I think that the Yankees need to draft aggressively this year to restock the farm.

So in the end I want the Yankees to give me upside or give me death.

BA gives out Draft Grades

Over at Baseball America Jim Callis one put up his draft grades for the last 4 drafts. They include the 08 to 05 drafts for each time. Per his comments BA doesn't take into account losing a first round pick, having multiple first round picks or supplemental round picks.


This stance upsets me slightly. They have the Giants have a grade of A for 2007. That year they had 6 of the first 51 picks. The odds of them getting a great prospect is extremely high because of that. Being able to take 6 top 50 talent is huge to restock a farm system with elite talent.

Also BA doesn't taken into account the position of the drafting. The rays have the 3rd best drafting of the 4 years. 2008, 2007 they had the #1 picks 2006 they had the #3 pick and 2005 they had the #8 pick. Tampa never drafted lower then 8th in any round during that time. They get the first pick of each round.

The Yankees had a C for 08, a C for 07, an A for 06 and a C+ for the 05 draft. Some of these grades are in my mind what they should be. 06 was easily the best draft class that the Yankees have had. 07 was the Brackman draft. Now I also don't think that BA has these grades locked. I think the 06 regardless of what happens will be an A. I think the 07 has a change to improve.

07 has a chance to improve. If Brackman regains some of his form and makes the majors the draft grade will improve. Also Romine still has a chance alone to improve this grade just himself. Also Bradley Suttle was injured all season. He had a great year in 08 and was ranked very well by BA. BA also had a coach who said that he liked Suttle more then Montero as a bat. Of course this was before Montero blew up in the minors but he was still at that point considered a top 50 prospect.

My biggest gripe with the grades is this. I don't think you can really grade a draft until 3 or 4 years down the line. All the HS talent after 1 year is either in Low A or the short season ball. Most HS pitchers aren't going to be Phil Hughes and jump up to High A in your first season. Most elite pitching prospects pitch a full season in Low A. While you can tell stuff you most of the time they are facing guys who are good but haven't seen advance pitching and elite pitchers can get by on fastball velocity alone.

Over the next few days I'm going to take a look at each of these drafts and give my own grade. We will see if BA and I can agree or if we will disagree.

Sleepers part 1

Each week I'm going to be giving you sleepers to follow this year in the minors. These are guys who I think could jump into top 30 prospect lists around the internet and major outlets.

Nik Turley.

Some Yankee fans reading this(I'm hoping your reading this) will know who Turley is or have heard his name. Nik Turley was an 08 HS draftee. Signed in the 50th round which is the last round of the MLB draft. Turley had a scholarship offer to go to BYU. For the Yankees to get him away from BYU they gave him $125,000. A high bonus for most rounds let alone the last one.

Nik Turley has one thing you can't teach, that is size. Baseball reference, Baseball America and MILB all have Nik Turley listed as 6'7" and 195 lbs. Baseball cube has him listed at 6'3" 230 lbs. BA's handbook had him listed as 6'4" in their recapp. Regardless of the source Turley is 6'4" to 6'7". I tend to think to think that Turley is actually 6'7". Turley also is left handed which is a huge boon to his draft stock since there are not as many good LHP prospects.

Turley throws an average fastball right now sitting in the upper 80's to low 90's right now. BA It is considered average right now. He does throw it on a downward plane which helps to add to the pitch. The Yankees are hoping that his velocity picks up so it is low 90's to mid 90's.

Turley also throws a curve ball right now. His HS coach said it has good spin and velocity coming in at 70-72. It isn't there every time he throws it and most HS pitchers are like that.

Change up: Before being drafted he picked one up a change up in HS. It has developed to be an average pitch right now with potential of being plus.

Results:

This is what Nik has done since being drafted.
2008. Nik threw 8 innings total since he signed on the signing day. His #'s were good with a WHIP of .75 and 13 k's to 0 bb
2009 Nik threw 54.1 innings. That was 10 starts with 1 other game he got into. ERA was 2.82 with 46 k's and 23 bbs. His WHIP was 1.252 with a 7.6 k per 9. This was in the GCL.

54.1 Innings isn't a lot but my guess is that he threw some innings in Extended Spring training where he started also in instructional league. My guess is that he innings total is close to 100 for the year. I base this off the fact that as a senio in HS he threw 67 innings his senior year plus 8 innings in the GCL. That would give him 75 innings that year and the Yankees probably added a few more in instructional league. They would want him to get around 100 this year maybe a little more.

Outlook on Turley. I really like Turley. I like a big lefty who is projectable and who could add in velocity. I believe that Turley could follow the same path as Zach McAllister and boom. I think he will start Low A this year and you could see him really take off at the end of this year or next year. Guys who are left handed and throw an average fastball will always get a chance. I think if Turley can sharpen up his curve ball to a plus pitch and sit in the low 90's he has a ceiling of a #2 starter, of course that will only happen if he adds velocity. If he just sits in the low 90's only then probably a #4 starter.

I do think I'm a little bullish on Turley compared to others. I haven't been crushed by a prospect as others have. But if Turley threw a few mph harder coming out of college he would have been a top 10 round pick easily. Also bigger pitchers take time to master their delivery which is why I think the best if yet to come for Turley.

Andrew Brackman.

Andrew Brackman. To Yankee fans who follow the minors this is one name that prompts two reactions. Either you say the kid is coming off TJ surgery, give him some time. He hasn't thrown that many innings in his career. Give him time. The second is that Brackman is a bust.

I believe that we need to give Brackman more time. Yes he isn't young for the league but he threw 149.1 innings at NC State. That is the total amount of innings for his 3 years in college. That isn't a lot of innings for a player to learn his craft. Now this year he threw 106.2 innings.

Brackman was also healthy for the whole season. So he threw more innings then he had in his college and pro career and stayed healthy. That is a huge thing especially for a guy coming of a major surgery. So let's give him some credit for that.

The word bust gets thrown out very quickly now. I've even some comments at Yankee blogs and message boards. They say we should never have drafted Brackman. To me that is just crazy. Yes Brackman hasn't pitched in the majors but he was a top 10 talent in the draft that the Yankees got on the 30th position.

Here is the scouting report on Brackman before the draft.
Fastball. Sits 92-97 mph with plus movement and life in the zone.
Curveball. 78-81 mph with a plus potential.
Changeup. Average pitch.
Command. Very good fastball command needs refinement on his offspeed pitch.

Here is what Frankie P(AOL Fanhouse) said of Brackman's fastball. "A: (Frankie) TJ Surgery or not I don’t know if anyone matches Andrew Brackman’s 100 MPH heat. I personally got him 4 times at 100 so I’m going with him." This was a question about who had the best fastball in the minors who hadn't made the majors. This chat was done april 17th 2008 before Brackman had completely recovered from TJ surgery.

Next I would ask the person who would you want the Yankees to draft instead of Brackman? Some might say Jordan Zimmerman. What most people don't know about Zimmerman is that he went to a D III school. He wasn't a top prospect entering the draft mostly because he was only average at that DIII school before staring in the cape cod.

How about Mike Stanton, why didn't we draft him. Stanton was a HS prospect. He had multiple offers to play baseball. But what made a bunch of teams not draft Stanton very early is because he had a scholarship to USC with an invitation to walk on their football team. There were also some worries about his k rate which is a concern still to this day.

With the #30 pick the Yanks need to go with a huge upside guy. That is what they did. So far it hasn't work out as Brackman or the Yankees have wanted. But lets look at his stats from his first full season in professional ball.

He pitched 106 innings. Had 103 k's but 76 walks(Yikes!), 106 hits and an era of 5.91. Those are some good signs there. K per 9 was 8.7 which is good. HR per 9 was .7. He seemed to also figure it out the last 2 months of the season with 11 bb's to 24 k's in August and September.

Another point is look at Dan Bard. In 08 he was terrible. He walked 78 batters in 75 innings. That is 2 more walks than Brackman in 31 fewer innings. He also had around a 6 k per 9 rate then. Bard wasn't coming off TJ and he also wasn't 6'10. He is a 6'4" pitcher which is the idea size. He turned it around and got on the fast track.

Randy Johnson is the largest HOF(Yes I know he isn't in yet but he is a lock) pitcher. As a 22 year old prospect in AA, that HOF walked 128 batters in 140 innings, that comes to an 8.2 BB per 9. If you look at Randy's career he doesn't get his walk rate under 4 until he was 29.

This is just one bloggers opinion but I think the jury is still out on Brackman. I do think it's funny how a guy can go from an elite talent to a bust in 1 season. No one can struggle anymore even in the minors. To me that is just wrong, is Jesus struggles this year people won't be up in arms to call him a bust. From all account Brackman works on his craft, he is trying to get better. Let's cut him some slack, wish him to have two seasons without injury and see if they are successful or terrible. Only then do I think that we will know if Brackman is leaning towards being a bust or a prospect who just took a little longer.

What this site will be about

Hello there blog world. For my first post I wanted to give you an idea of what I will be doing with this blog. I will be following the Yankees prospects in the minors and providing content on who I think the Yankees should be drafting this June in the draft.

But wait Jake, there are a lot of great sites out there providing info on the minors for the Yanks. Yes there are. Mike at River Ave Blues is great, so is Greg Fertel at Pending Pinstripes and lastly is EJ at TYU. Each of them does a great job and I'm not here to replace them. I'm going to provide my own thoughts on prospects that Yankee fans want to talk about.

I really got the idea for this blog when I heard that Lane at Nomaas was leaving. I loved his draft spot, it was a frequent stop for me to go to each day. I want to do a lot about the draft but also about the minors which I follow closely. So that is what this site will be about. I hope you enjoy it.