Yankee pitching prospects by ceiling

Last week I looked at the Yankees and position players looking for areas of weakness. Now I’m going to do the same thing with the starting rotation.

Number 1 starters don’t grow on trees. Good thing for the Yankees they have 1 signed for some time. C.C is a legit #1 with the added benefit of pitching 220 innings a season. C.C gives the Yankees both a #1 starter potential along with workhorse innings. C.C is locked up at least through 2011. I don’t think he will opt out of his contract thou, I say this because at that point his deal will be 23 million a year. No one is going to pay him that much money especially when Halladay just signed an extension at 20 million. I do see C.C getting an extension to lock him in for a couple more years but this is getting off the subject. In the minors the Yankees have 2 guys who profile as front of the rotation starters. Those two pitchers being Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman with the bad part being that neither is more than a 5% chance of reaching that potential. Brackman has the better chance but after this year I don’t see it. Remember this is their ceiling, their floor is to never make the majors and both look more that way now.

Number 2 starter is AJ Burnett. AJ is locked up through the 2013 season. A number two starter is suppose to have 2 plus pitches with average command and an average third pitch. In the Yankees minor league system I think there are 2 guys who could fill that role. 1 of them is Manny Banuelos. Manny will need to sharpen up his breaking ball and changeup along with a consistent fastball. Some see Manny more of a mid rotation starter but Frankie P at AOL Fanhouse profiled Manny as a #2 starter believing that his velocity will be more consistent with both offspeed pitches improving. I would say Manny has the best poise of any Yankee farm hand which is an intangible that isn’t taught. The second pitcher in the minor who could fill that is Jose Ramirez blew up this year even thou BA doesn’t rank him in the top 20 of the Yankees system. I believe this is because he hasn’t pitched in full season ball yet other than a relief appearance with Tampa. Velocity is great on his fastball and he flashed a plus plus change up according to Kiley M formerly of BP. 2 plus pitches is what is needed and he would have that. An average breaking ball is all that Ramirez needs now along with polish and innings.

Number 3 starter for the Yankees is Andy Pettitte. Andy is going to pitch for who knows how many years. I like that he goes year by year which helps the Yankees especially in their development. The Yankees have a number of guys who profile to do what Andy does which is give a bunch of quality innings. The number one guy who can do that is Zach McAllister. He is a big kid who has 2 good pitches with very good command. I do think nationally he gets a little undervalued because he doesn’t blow up the radar gun. In the last two years he has 2.09 ERA in 08 between Low A and High A and a 2.23 ERA in AA. Also his WHIP the last 2 years was 1.075 in 08 and 1.083 in AA. His K rate actually improved in AA over High A also.

Number 4-5 starters. Javy Zasquez and (Joba or Phil) are the starters. Javy will only be here for 1 year unless he dominates and only wants to play for the Yankees. Joba or Phil will both be here for some time. I think these type of starters are the same and the Yankees have guys who can fill these positions very easily, in fact after 2010 they could both be the number four and five starters. If they don’t fill that role names that could come up for that is Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Hector Noesi or Jairo Heredia. All of these guys project to be number 4 or number 5 starters with some having a little more ceiling.

Overall the Yankees have done a very good job pitching wise compared to the hitter’s side. I’m not including Joba or Phil as prospects because their status as prospects is now gone. Joba has legit #1 type stuff if he can harness it and get velocity back on his fastball. Phil has number 2 type stuff so really the Yankees are in a great place. Pitching is something that every team needs a lot of because starters get hurt, a lot. One I didn’t place was Jeremy Bleich mostly because right now his ceiling is up in the air. If his velocity jump is legit then he has more of a #2 type starter with his plus change up and average curve or flip flopping those rankings based on the scout. If his velocity jump is not real and he goes back to where he was in college then his ceiling is a #3 guy which is not bad.

Why most people want top of the rotation starters for every starting pitching prospect that just isn’t realistic. If you look at the ones the Yankees have they both have floors that are super low. Most guys who are legit # 1’s don’t fall to the Yankees or if they do it’s because they have warts. Brackman and Dellin both have some big warts. What you want from your SP prospects is to get big leaguers to fill your roster. You want that most of all because they are cheap and provide huge $$ value for the team.

What the Yankees need to draft.

The Yankees have spent more money on the draft in recent years and have been a lot more aggressive when it comes to overslot guys. While I’m more of the mindset that you should draft the best player available I do think the Yankees lack in certain areas. Catchers are a huge plus for the Yankees, starting pitching depth also is a strength of the Yankees farm system. Looking at the contracts on the books lets see where the Yankees need to draft guys.

1st Base: Mark Teixera will be the first baseman to 2016. No need to draft a guy for that position. They do have Jesus Montero who probably will need to be a 1st baseman by the end of that contract.

2nd Base: Robbie Cano is locked up through the 2013 season. It’s safe to say that the Yankees won’t need a 2nd baseman also for some time. Yankees do have David Adams in the minors who could play 2nd base in a few years if he continues to develop.

SS: Derek Jeter is only signed for this year. Many people feel that he will sign a three to four year contract. I too believe that he won’t get a longer contract than 4 years. While he might get that I do wonder how many more years he can play SS. I think Jeter can play SS for 3-4 more years. Right now the farm system is barren when it comes to SS prospects. I’m not a huge fan of Nunez or any of the other prospects who are at SS.

3rd base: A-Rod is probably going to be the 3rd baseman for some time, 2017 in fact. I do wonder how long A-Rod can play 3rd base but even if he only plays for 5 more years at 3rd base the Yankees won’t need anyone at the hot corner until then. The Yankees do have a few 3rd base prospects most notably is Bradley Suttle who even thou had a lost season is a legit 3rd base prospect who could jump back into a top 10 prospect list for the Yankees.

Catcher: Jorge Posada has 2 more years left on his contract. I do think this will be the last year for Posada full time behind the plate. They have Frankie Cervelli who is a great defender and who could be a backup for a number of years. After him they have Montero who could be ready to catch in the bigs full time after this season. Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy ( who Jim Callis said might turn out to be the best catcher in the system) all could play catcher within 4 years.

Outfield: 2 spots are locked up for the Yankees. Swisher is signed through 2012 if they pick up his option. Curtis Granderson has an option for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Two of the three outfield spots are locked up long term. In the minors the Yankees have no one close to being MLB ready. Kevin Deleon will start in full season ball this year along with Slade Heathcott. Abe Almonte is the only player who will play above low A this year who has a legit shot to being a big leaguer. I say this because I want to see how the college OF’s the Yankees drafted do in full season ball.

So the Yankees do need to address some of these faults. I do think that Slade could be ready by the time Granderson’s contract is done. SS is the most pressing but as I say that the Yankees could always trade for a young SS with prospects in other areas. Prospects can either be used to fill a need or trade for a need. I think we will see the Yankees try to find a SS that they think can move up the system quickly. OF depth also is an area of need but it could be better if any of the college OF’s that the Yankees drafted emerge as legit options.

2006 draft

2006 is the draft that really restocked the Yankee farm system. The Yankees spent 6.7 million dollars on the 2006 draft. While other years since then the Yankees have spent more money on the draft this is the year where it all seemed to have come together. So I wanted to take a look at each of the guys drafted, see how much the Yankees have gotten in return and really evaluate the draft.
Here is a list of the players drafted, numbers in parenthesis are the draft round.

Ian Kennedy (1)
Joba Chamberlain (1S)
Zach McAllister (3)
Colin Curtis (4)
George Kontos (5)
Mitch Hilligoss (6)
Tim Norton (7)
Dellin Betances (8)
Mark Melancon (9)
Casey Erickson (10)
Seth Fortenberry (11)
Nick Peterson (12)
Dan McCutchen (13)
D.J. Hollingsworth (14)
Gabe Medina (15)
Paul David Patterson (16)
David Robertson (17)
Chris Kunda (19)
Kevin Russo (20)
Russell Raley (21)
Brian Aragon (22)
Brandon Thompson (23)
Brian Baisley (24)
Tim Dennehy (26)
B rock Ungricht (30)
Luke Trubee (33)
Tim O’Brien (37)
Nick Diyorio (38)
Kevin Smith (39)
James Lasala (44)
Chase Odenreider (49)

So those were all the players that were drafted by the Yankees. I’m going to use WAR to evaluate value of the player. I will also subtract the players salary from the MLB level not the minor league level.

1. Ian Kenney according from Fangraphs is $1.6 million He also earned $803,200 one season in salary along with his signing bonus
2. Joba Chamberlain according from Fangraphs has given the Yankees $25.3 million in value with $822,575 in salary.
3. Mark Melancon has contributed $200k in value and Cot’s doesn’t have what his salary was during the year because he didn’t break camp and wasn’t up very much. I’m going to say he cost $100k in salary.
4. David Robertson has given the Yankees $4.8 million in value. Cot’s had his value for 09 as $406,825 in salary for 09, for 08 I’m going to say another $200k in salary.

What is crazy is that only 4 of the guys have made the majors from the 06 draft. That is 3 years of time for players to get to the show. Out of these picks the Yankees can still add value also. Zach McAllister will probably be the 2nd guy called up from the minors because of injury. Dellin still has a legit ceiling of a number 1 if he is healthy and get’s his walks under control. Kontos could bounce back and be a decent middle reliever. Kevin Russo might also be a future utility man.

Dan McCutchen also helped bring Xavier Nady to the Yankees. Nady contributed WAR value to the Yankees and I’m going to take 20% of his prorated value minus salary. That adds 1.16 in WAR value minus his salary.
So how do the numbers stack up? This draft class has contributed $33.06 million in value to the Yankees. It has cost them $8,625,775 in salary and signing bonus. This also doesn’t take into account minor league salaries for players. So the Yankees have gotten 4 times the value from the signing bonuses and salary of these players that they drafted. Also keep in mind that they used Kennedy as a big part of the Granderson trade too.

Now Joba contributed 75% of the total value of the WAR. I do think that this will change with Robertson, Melancon and McAllister helping out. I would say that if the Yankees got 4 times the value of what they spent 3 years later that they would spend more on the draft. For a draft junky I would like this a lot.

Jesus Montero or TEH JESUS!!!!

Sorry about the lack of updating. The wife and I are trying to sell our place while looking for a new one. Lots of house work to make sure that our house sells quickly. Now back to prospects.


Jesus is the crown jewel in the Yankee farm system. An elite bat that according to most scouts will play anywhere. BA said he had an 80 contact with an 80 power. That is elite of the elite. Only downside is Montero is supposed to have below average defense. I wonder if he could eventually be a 40 defender which would be below MLB average.

Montero’s bat has been compared to Mike Piazza. This is a truly scary thing for teams in the AL East who would have to face Montero multiple times. I say that because looking at Piazza’s numbers they are truly scary for opponents of the Yankees. His OPS + was 144 for his career, that is amazing.
On the downside Piazza wasn’t very good defensively. This is another reason that Montero get’s the Piazza comparison. Piazza allowed a ton of SB and only caught over 30% once in his career. He was considered to give up on average 5.4 runs a year on his defense. Piazza was big behind the plate and wasn’t a good receiver. Something that Montero according to scouts

It’s hard to see Piazza’s skills would be total since the stat WAR doesn’t go that far back and doesn’t include defense. That being said if Montero could be 120-130 OPS + player then the Yankees will be happy. He would be Jorge Posada. Something that Yankee fans have had no problem with even thou most would say Posada is a 40 defender.

The funny thing about Posada is that he developed late in his career. Looking at his minor stats Posada only did 1 thing better than Montero, that being drawing walks. His minor league walk to strikeout ratio was a lot better than Montero. Other than that Montero was the better hitter. I do think that Montero could end up being a 130-135 OPS + guy. Even if he gave up an average of 5 runs for his defense I think that the Yankees would take that.

Montero also could improve defensively. Hearing from Yankee brass the kid seems to take his defense faults personally and works very hard on that. I don’t take the SB numbers very seriously in the minors because most pitchers down there don’t hold runners on well. This year should be the year where we see how good or bad Montero is defensively concerning the running game. AAA guys are a lot better of holding men on 1st base. Also Baseball America has said his defense has improved each year. That is a positive that I think the Yankees take to heart.

In the end Montero only has to catch until he can shift to 1st base or permanent DH, something that probably would be at age 27. By then he would have started to lose some athleticism that his body has. Getting 6 years of catching from the guy wouldn’t be bad with his bat. The guy is a masher and I think it will play anywhere.