Here is Frankie's list of the top 100 prospects
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/the-top-100-prospects-of-2010-1-25/
Here is the link to Frankie's chat.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/live-chat-top-100-prospects-edition/
Frankie is one of the best guys to talk to concerning prospects. He was a scout in the Texas organization. Frankie also ran SaberScouting with Kiley M formerly of Baseball Prospectus.
Jesus was the top Yankee prospect at #5. During his chat Frankie said that Montero was ahead of where Mike Piazza was at this stage.
Other Yankees that made the list was Manny Banuelos at 41, Austin Romine at 45 and Zach McAllister at 76.
Frankie had Manny B at 90-93 with the potential of 2 plus offspeed pitches. Saying his ceilling is a #2 starter. Also a guy who just missed was Jeremy Bleich who Frankie is very high on. He had him at 101 and was in the top 100 but Aroldis Chapman pushed him off.
Read the list and the chat. Then go and follow Frankie on twitter, his stuff is top notch.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
2010 Draft
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/early-draft-preview/2009/268869.html
Here is a link to BA's top 25 college and high school players entering the 2010 draft. This is before spring ball so things can change a ton.
Looking at the list the #1 college player is Bryce Harper on the college side. On the prep side it's Jameson Tallion. As of right now I don't see any way either of these guys fall to the Yankees. Harper is getting a lot of negative press but this is mostly because the expectations and hype for him was too large. Now it's swinging the other way.
Right now there is a ton of mock drafts out there but it's so hard to see what will happen during the spring and the draft is over 4 months away. Anyone who is picking more then the top 3 is just speculating. Last year Grant Green was suppose to be the #1 position prospect on the college side. He fell because the play on the field which can happen to any prospect not just a prep one.
Signability is always a case for players in college but more so with prep players. Right now advisors(agents really) won't be floating numbers for some time. So as of right now do I see any of the top prospects falling? No. Not until we see how things happen.
Now onto the prospect I want. It's #2 on the prep side, AJ Cole. To some Tallion is the #1 pitching prospect in the whole draft. He has a lot of Josh Beckett in him. He is 6'6" which is great side. A big fastball explodes out of his hand. But I would rather have Cole. He has room to grow in his frame. Seeing him pitch he reminds me of Justin Verlander, always a plus.
He is who I want if the Yankees can draft him but as of right now I don't see anyone falling. Not until spring ball starts and advisors start floating #'s.
Here is a link to BA's top 25 college and high school players entering the 2010 draft. This is before spring ball so things can change a ton.
Looking at the list the #1 college player is Bryce Harper on the college side. On the prep side it's Jameson Tallion. As of right now I don't see any way either of these guys fall to the Yankees. Harper is getting a lot of negative press but this is mostly because the expectations and hype for him was too large. Now it's swinging the other way.
Right now there is a ton of mock drafts out there but it's so hard to see what will happen during the spring and the draft is over 4 months away. Anyone who is picking more then the top 3 is just speculating. Last year Grant Green was suppose to be the #1 position prospect on the college side. He fell because the play on the field which can happen to any prospect not just a prep one.
Signability is always a case for players in college but more so with prep players. Right now advisors(agents really) won't be floating numbers for some time. So as of right now do I see any of the top prospects falling? No. Not until we see how things happen.
Now onto the prospect I want. It's #2 on the prep side, AJ Cole. To some Tallion is the #1 pitching prospect in the whole draft. He has a lot of Josh Beckett in him. He is 6'6" which is great side. A big fastball explodes out of his hand. But I would rather have Cole. He has room to grow in his frame. Seeing him pitch he reminds me of Justin Verlander, always a plus.
He is who I want if the Yankees can draft him but as of right now I don't see anyone falling. Not until spring ball starts and advisors start floating #'s.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Budget
That word is something that Yankee fans don’t like. But for the first time in recent memory the big league club is having one. Last year we heard from Damon Oppenheimer that the Yankees had given him a budget for last year’s draft. He did give this interview with Lane Meyer (formerly of Nomaas). I can’t link to the post because Nomaas has taken down the draft portion of their site when Lane left.
I remember reading the word budget and being shocked. Yankees and the word budget you don’t see in the same sentence. I thought it would affect their draft yet it really didn’t. They signed plenty of over slot guys that they liked. 2009 was the first year that there was a budget and I think that going forward that they should have a budget.
Now I say that but I want to let it be known that it should be a soft budget. I believe that going into the draft each year the Yankees should have a draft budget of 8 million. A max budget of 11 million that if a player the talent of Rick Porcello falls to them. This would let the Yankees sign high ceiling HS talent in the later rounds along with draft eligible sophomores.
From what I’ve been able to ask draft guys in chats, this is what most thought the Yankees should do. I also think having a budget might give the teams and league less leverage when it comes to a hard slotting system. As I noted the Yankees haven’t been the biggest spenders in the draft over the years and once all the amounts spent in 2009 I will update that again. By having a budget around what other teams have had they aren’t giving team’s fuel to the fire of a hard slotting system.
Going into this year’s draft I want the Yankees to spend 8 million on the draft but I could see that number going up if they believe a hard slotting system will come in. A hard slotting system would limit the Yankees on spending in the later rounds where they look for elite talent. I do think 2010 and 2011 will be the last two years for sure that there isn’t a hard slotting system. I could see the Yankees try to spend the money to restock the farm system that has gone down slightly because of the trades that were made. I think we won’t know what the Yankees truly will do until the draft comes. It should be a lot of fun thou to speculate on who could fall to them and how much they will be spend.
I remember reading the word budget and being shocked. Yankees and the word budget you don’t see in the same sentence. I thought it would affect their draft yet it really didn’t. They signed plenty of over slot guys that they liked. 2009 was the first year that there was a budget and I think that going forward that they should have a budget.
Now I say that but I want to let it be known that it should be a soft budget. I believe that going into the draft each year the Yankees should have a draft budget of 8 million. A max budget of 11 million that if a player the talent of Rick Porcello falls to them. This would let the Yankees sign high ceiling HS talent in the later rounds along with draft eligible sophomores.
From what I’ve been able to ask draft guys in chats, this is what most thought the Yankees should do. I also think having a budget might give the teams and league less leverage when it comes to a hard slotting system. As I noted the Yankees haven’t been the biggest spenders in the draft over the years and once all the amounts spent in 2009 I will update that again. By having a budget around what other teams have had they aren’t giving team’s fuel to the fire of a hard slotting system.
Going into this year’s draft I want the Yankees to spend 8 million on the draft but I could see that number going up if they believe a hard slotting system will come in. A hard slotting system would limit the Yankees on spending in the later rounds where they look for elite talent. I do think 2010 and 2011 will be the last two years for sure that there isn’t a hard slotting system. I could see the Yankees try to spend the money to restock the farm system that has gone down slightly because of the trades that were made. I think we won’t know what the Yankees truly will do until the draft comes. It should be a lot of fun thou to speculate on who could fall to them and how much they will be spend.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Draft Order
First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Pirates
3. Orioles
4. Royals
5. Indians
6. Diamondbacks
7. Mets
8. Astros
9. Padres
10. Athletics
11. Blue Jays
12. Reds
13. White Sox
14. Brewers
15. Rangers (for failure to sign 2009 first-rounder Matt Purke)
16. Cubs
17. Rays
18. Angels (from Mariners for Chone Figgins, A)
19. Astros (from Tigers for Jose Valverde, A)
20. Red Sox (from Braves for Billy Wagner, A)
21. Twins
22. Rangers
23. Marlins
24. Giants
25. Cardinals
26. Rockies
27. Phillies
28. Dodgers
29. Angels (from Red Sox for John Lackey, A)
30. Angels
31. Rays (for failure to sign 2009 first-rounder LeVon Washington)
32. Yankees
So the Yankees will pick 32nd since there are no more Type A Free Agents who turned down arbitration. You could see the Angels really try to restock their farm system with 3 picks before the Yankees. If signability guys fall I could see the Angels going after them because if they lost 1 they would get the picks next year.
The Red Sox also pick pretty early at 20th. The whole Billy Wagner thing was terrible and so wrong. No way should he have been a Type A free agent. The system is pretty flawed.
1. Nationals
2. Pirates
3. Orioles
4. Royals
5. Indians
6. Diamondbacks
7. Mets
8. Astros
9. Padres
10. Athletics
11. Blue Jays
12. Reds
13. White Sox
14. Brewers
15. Rangers (for failure to sign 2009 first-rounder Matt Purke)
16. Cubs
17. Rays
18. Angels (from Mariners for Chone Figgins, A)
19. Astros (from Tigers for Jose Valverde, A)
20. Red Sox (from Braves for Billy Wagner, A)
21. Twins
22. Rangers
23. Marlins
24. Giants
25. Cardinals
26. Rockies
27. Phillies
28. Dodgers
29. Angels (from Red Sox for John Lackey, A)
30. Angels
31. Rays (for failure to sign 2009 first-rounder LeVon Washington)
32. Yankees
So the Yankees will pick 32nd since there are no more Type A Free Agents who turned down arbitration. You could see the Angels really try to restock their farm system with 3 picks before the Yankees. If signability guys fall I could see the Angels going after them because if they lost 1 they would get the picks next year.
The Red Sox also pick pretty early at 20th. The whole Billy Wagner thing was terrible and so wrong. No way should he have been a Type A free agent. The system is pretty flawed.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
A Look Back
I picked up BA’s 07 prospect book off my shelf today and I thought I would do a look back at the top 10 prospects of that year. Also would give BA’s ceiling and if they have reached that as of yet plus what I think of the prospects.
1.) Phil Hughes. Hughes was the top pitching prospect in the minors. I’m not going to give that to Dice K since he never spent any time in the minors. Hughes ceiling was that of an ace pitcher, a legit # 1 starter. His ceiling has diminished slightly mostly because of some injuries that seem to have sapped a little velocity. Now he looks like a very good #2 starter. He will compete this year for the #5 spot with Joba.
2.) Jose Tabata. BA was always very high on Jose. They said he could reach the majors by the end of 2008. Tabata was the main piece that the Pirates got in the Nady trade. His prospect status has taken a hit also. Good but not great seasons and a lack of power seem to have cooled Jose’s prospect status from elite to very good. BA was also wrong, 2009 came without Tabata making it to the majors. He probably will go back to AAA this year to work on his game.
3.) Humberto Sanchez. The key piece in the Gary Sheffield trade. Humberto had wowed scouts at the future game. Sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 Humberto had the big fastball and a plus slider that gave him 2 legit big league pitches. Hungry hungry Humberto was probably his downfall. He never could keep his weight in check and it probably lead to his injuries also. He pitched last year for a grand total of 35.2 innings. Big bust but the Yankees did get rid of Sheffield’s salary so that is a plus.
4.) Dellin Betances. Dellin was an 8th round draft pick of the Yankees in 06. With a potential of 2 plus pitches scouts were drooling over the 6’8” giant. BA later admitted it was extremely bullish on Dellin. Dellin so far hasn’t gotten past High A Tampa and also hasn’t been healthy with 2 injuries in 3 years. His ceiling is still that of a top rotation starter but no one knows if he will be able to master a repeatable delivery to make it there.
5.) Joba Chamberlain. Either he will be a front line starter or a closer. We won’t debate which but for the $1.1 million signing bonus the Yankees got a steal. A drop in velocity has cooled some people on Joba but I’m of the opinion that it was Joba pushing past his innings high and the Yankees handling of him. Think of it like this, Joba has cost the Yankees roughly $2.3 million in salary and signing bonus. He has generated $25.3 million in value according to fangraphs.
6.) Ian Kennedy. Most people hated this pick from the Yankees. I think that the Yankees knew that Joba was going to fall more and they could take him a little later. While Joba’s ceiling was huge Kennedy was a #3 starter. He had great #’s at USC against really good competitions. He got a little overhyped at one point but his ceiling is still a #3 starter but not in the AL East. He was a part of the trade to bring Granderson to NY so I would call the investment in him well worth it. He will probably be given every opportunity to be the Diamondbacks #4 starter.
7.) Tyler Clippard. Another Yankee prospect that got overhyped but this was by the fans more so then the media. Tyler actually threw harder in HS then in the minors. He was traded to Washington and finally made the majors for good last year. While he did finally make the majors he was a starter in the minors so his value is lower. With that being said he threw 60 innings last year and pitched well having a K/9 of 10.
8.) J. Brent Cox. Being drafted in 2005 in the 2nd round of the draft. The Texas longhorns closer after Houston Street left had lots of Yankee fans and other people thinking he would be the closer of the future. He was always better suited for a setup role better then a closer because while he has the mental make up to close games in college his stuff wasn’t closer material in the majors. J.B never made the majors and appears to have left the game of baseball.
9.) Kevin Whelan was drafted by the Tigers and shipped to the Yankees along with the Hungry Humberto in the Sheffield trade. Scouts loved 2 things of Whelan’s game. His velocity which is 92-94, it has good deception since he was a catcher before being converted to the mound. Whelan also has a plus to plus plus splitter. Problem for Whelan is that it appears he has no idea at times where the ball is going. While his K/9 is 11.4 for his career in the minors his BB/9 is 5.4 and doesn’t appear to be getting better. He probably will go back to AAA this year as a 26 year old reliever. He was rule 5 eligible and no one took Whelan. He probably won’t make it out of the minors.
10.) Brett “grit” Gardner. Gardner is either loved by Yankee fans or hated. He played a lot of time last year since he won the starting CF job from Melky. He will be given the LF job right now with his plus defense to help him out he will bat #9. The Yankees have spent less than $1.8 million on salaries for Gardner and he has given them $14.4 million in value. I would say that is a great investment. This will be a pivotal year for Gardner thou, he will either establish himself as an everyday OF or be a 4th outfield. Regardless of what happens Gardner has helped the Yankees win a championship and that is all the farm system can ask for.
So that is the top 10 prospects going into the 07 season. Looking at this list the Yankees actually did really well. They got 4 guys who made the majors out of this list. Tabata still has a chance to make the majors also. That would be a 50% hit on their top 10 prospects. I would call that pretty good. Not every prospect will ever make the majors even ones who make top 10 lists. This list could even get better if Joba becomes what scouts think and so does Hughes because of the guys who made the majors 3 of them are still 25 and under.
1.) Phil Hughes. Hughes was the top pitching prospect in the minors. I’m not going to give that to Dice K since he never spent any time in the minors. Hughes ceiling was that of an ace pitcher, a legit # 1 starter. His ceiling has diminished slightly mostly because of some injuries that seem to have sapped a little velocity. Now he looks like a very good #2 starter. He will compete this year for the #5 spot with Joba.
2.) Jose Tabata. BA was always very high on Jose. They said he could reach the majors by the end of 2008. Tabata was the main piece that the Pirates got in the Nady trade. His prospect status has taken a hit also. Good but not great seasons and a lack of power seem to have cooled Jose’s prospect status from elite to very good. BA was also wrong, 2009 came without Tabata making it to the majors. He probably will go back to AAA this year to work on his game.
3.) Humberto Sanchez. The key piece in the Gary Sheffield trade. Humberto had wowed scouts at the future game. Sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 Humberto had the big fastball and a plus slider that gave him 2 legit big league pitches. Hungry hungry Humberto was probably his downfall. He never could keep his weight in check and it probably lead to his injuries also. He pitched last year for a grand total of 35.2 innings. Big bust but the Yankees did get rid of Sheffield’s salary so that is a plus.
4.) Dellin Betances. Dellin was an 8th round draft pick of the Yankees in 06. With a potential of 2 plus pitches scouts were drooling over the 6’8” giant. BA later admitted it was extremely bullish on Dellin. Dellin so far hasn’t gotten past High A Tampa and also hasn’t been healthy with 2 injuries in 3 years. His ceiling is still that of a top rotation starter but no one knows if he will be able to master a repeatable delivery to make it there.
5.) Joba Chamberlain. Either he will be a front line starter or a closer. We won’t debate which but for the $1.1 million signing bonus the Yankees got a steal. A drop in velocity has cooled some people on Joba but I’m of the opinion that it was Joba pushing past his innings high and the Yankees handling of him. Think of it like this, Joba has cost the Yankees roughly $2.3 million in salary and signing bonus. He has generated $25.3 million in value according to fangraphs.
6.) Ian Kennedy. Most people hated this pick from the Yankees. I think that the Yankees knew that Joba was going to fall more and they could take him a little later. While Joba’s ceiling was huge Kennedy was a #3 starter. He had great #’s at USC against really good competitions. He got a little overhyped at one point but his ceiling is still a #3 starter but not in the AL East. He was a part of the trade to bring Granderson to NY so I would call the investment in him well worth it. He will probably be given every opportunity to be the Diamondbacks #4 starter.
7.) Tyler Clippard. Another Yankee prospect that got overhyped but this was by the fans more so then the media. Tyler actually threw harder in HS then in the minors. He was traded to Washington and finally made the majors for good last year. While he did finally make the majors he was a starter in the minors so his value is lower. With that being said he threw 60 innings last year and pitched well having a K/9 of 10.
8.) J. Brent Cox. Being drafted in 2005 in the 2nd round of the draft. The Texas longhorns closer after Houston Street left had lots of Yankee fans and other people thinking he would be the closer of the future. He was always better suited for a setup role better then a closer because while he has the mental make up to close games in college his stuff wasn’t closer material in the majors. J.B never made the majors and appears to have left the game of baseball.
9.) Kevin Whelan was drafted by the Tigers and shipped to the Yankees along with the Hungry Humberto in the Sheffield trade. Scouts loved 2 things of Whelan’s game. His velocity which is 92-94, it has good deception since he was a catcher before being converted to the mound. Whelan also has a plus to plus plus splitter. Problem for Whelan is that it appears he has no idea at times where the ball is going. While his K/9 is 11.4 for his career in the minors his BB/9 is 5.4 and doesn’t appear to be getting better. He probably will go back to AAA this year as a 26 year old reliever. He was rule 5 eligible and no one took Whelan. He probably won’t make it out of the minors.
10.) Brett “grit” Gardner. Gardner is either loved by Yankee fans or hated. He played a lot of time last year since he won the starting CF job from Melky. He will be given the LF job right now with his plus defense to help him out he will bat #9. The Yankees have spent less than $1.8 million on salaries for Gardner and he has given them $14.4 million in value. I would say that is a great investment. This will be a pivotal year for Gardner thou, he will either establish himself as an everyday OF or be a 4th outfield. Regardless of what happens Gardner has helped the Yankees win a championship and that is all the farm system can ask for.
So that is the top 10 prospects going into the 07 season. Looking at this list the Yankees actually did really well. They got 4 guys who made the majors out of this list. Tabata still has a chance to make the majors also. That would be a 50% hit on their top 10 prospects. I would call that pretty good. Not every prospect will ever make the majors even ones who make top 10 lists. This list could even get better if Joba becomes what scouts think and so does Hughes because of the guys who made the majors 3 of them are still 25 and under.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Fast Risers Part 1
Sorry about the lack of updates for a few days. 10 straight days at work will do that for free time. Also the wife wants some time so blogging had to take a back seat for a few days. Well I’m off for the next few days so I will be posting so don’t worry.
Adam Warren could be a fast riser in the Yankee farm system. Warren is a senior signing of the 09 draft. He was drafted in the 4th round out of powerhouse North Carolina. Warren is a smart guy graduating with a GPA of 3.36 and a degree in business.
College years:
2006: As an 18 year old freshman Warren pitched 24.1 innings, 3 games were started and he got into another 12 games. Warren had an ERA of 4.81, with 15 K’s to 13 BB’s. Not great but he was 18 years old
2007: 70 innings for this year with 12 games started getting into 3 more games. His ERA was great, 2.17. While his numbers was good it probably was somewhat luck based. 49 K’s to 28 BB’s.
2008: This was the year to jump for Warren and he fell a little flat. As a 20 year old he pitched 18 games, all starts for 83 innings total. 73 K’s to 46 BB’s for the year. His ERA was 4.23 for the year.
2009: Warren lowered his ERA to 3.31. His 103 K’s were a career high, he had 36 BB’s to go with that in 98 innings.
It’s hard to look at his stats in college because we don’t know what level of competition he was facing. He was at a powerhouse school and a good conference. There are good signs thou, his K per 9 increased every year he was in college.
H/9 BB/9 K/9 Whip
2006 10.7 4.8 5.5 1.73
2007 7.1 3.6 6.2 1.19
2008 9.3 5.0 7.9 1.59
2009 7.6 3.6 9.5 1.24
Looking at this I think that Warren has gotten better each year. Warren’s BB’s have decreased while his K rate keeps rising, this is a very good trend.
Minor League season:
2009: Warren started 12 games for Staten Island. He pitched 56.2 innings for the affiliate over the course of 12 games, all starts. His K’s at Staten Island were 50 while his walks were just 10. His ERA was 1.43 which is very good, if he had qualified with more innings his ERA would have lead the league. Warren’s WHIP was 1.04 mostly because he lowered his walk rate. This would have been in the top 10 also for the league if he had more innings.
Warren’s velocity has seen a jump starting at the half way point of his senior season. He was mostly 89-91 peaking at 92 at times. Now he is sitting 93-94 touching 95. Adam also throws a 2 seamer which got him a ton of groundballs at State Island. He also throws a changeup, curveball and slider/cutter.
Seeing Warren pitch on Youtube, he looks built well. He is listed as 6’1” to 6’3” depending on where you look. His weight is 200 to 215 lbs which is good. It’s hard to see how tall Warren is from the video but he looks as if he can handle innings on his frame. I say that because in 09 he pitched a combine 154 innings.
In an interview with Pending Pinstripes’ Greg Fertel Warren said that the Yankees want him to work on stretching and flexibility. From the interview Warren comes off as a guy who wants to get better, will work hard in the offseason to get his body in the best shape and as an intelligent guy. (Link to the whole article http://www.sportsnewsandscores.com/qa-with-new-york-yankees-pitching-prospect-adam-warren.html )
Outlook:
Warren will probably start off at High A Tampa. I could see him pitching there like Jeremy Bleich did and getting a call up after 10 to 14 starts. Being only 22 to start the season Warren could be an option for the Yankees to make a spot start at the end of next season at the earliest if he dominates hitters like Ian Kennedy did.
NY shouldn’t be worried about inning for Warren since he threw 150 this last year. Kennedy and Warren both entered their first full minor league season at the same age even thou Kennedy was drafted as a junior and Warren as a senior.
Ceiling:
It’s hard to make a good guess on Warren’s ceiling because of his velocity jump. If that is true and he pitches at those velocities it changes how he is as a prospect. If he settles back down to what his velocity was before this season it makes grading him as a prospect easier. As of this point I can’t put a grade or a ceiling on Warren. I think we need to see how he pitches and how his pitches play out. If his velocity stays where it was at Staten Island the Yankees look to have grabbed a steal with their 4th round pick since they signed him for slot $158,000. Only time will tell on Warren’s ceiling, I will give a ceiling of him after the minor league season. I will say a good player comp could be Junichi Tazawa.
Adam Warren could be a fast riser in the Yankee farm system. Warren is a senior signing of the 09 draft. He was drafted in the 4th round out of powerhouse North Carolina. Warren is a smart guy graduating with a GPA of 3.36 and a degree in business.
College years:
2006: As an 18 year old freshman Warren pitched 24.1 innings, 3 games were started and he got into another 12 games. Warren had an ERA of 4.81, with 15 K’s to 13 BB’s. Not great but he was 18 years old
2007: 70 innings for this year with 12 games started getting into 3 more games. His ERA was great, 2.17. While his numbers was good it probably was somewhat luck based. 49 K’s to 28 BB’s.
2008: This was the year to jump for Warren and he fell a little flat. As a 20 year old he pitched 18 games, all starts for 83 innings total. 73 K’s to 46 BB’s for the year. His ERA was 4.23 for the year.
2009: Warren lowered his ERA to 3.31. His 103 K’s were a career high, he had 36 BB’s to go with that in 98 innings.
It’s hard to look at his stats in college because we don’t know what level of competition he was facing. He was at a powerhouse school and a good conference. There are good signs thou, his K per 9 increased every year he was in college.
H/9 BB/9 K/9 Whip
2006 10.7 4.8 5.5 1.73
2007 7.1 3.6 6.2 1.19
2008 9.3 5.0 7.9 1.59
2009 7.6 3.6 9.5 1.24
Looking at this I think that Warren has gotten better each year. Warren’s BB’s have decreased while his K rate keeps rising, this is a very good trend.
Minor League season:
2009: Warren started 12 games for Staten Island. He pitched 56.2 innings for the affiliate over the course of 12 games, all starts. His K’s at Staten Island were 50 while his walks were just 10. His ERA was 1.43 which is very good, if he had qualified with more innings his ERA would have lead the league. Warren’s WHIP was 1.04 mostly because he lowered his walk rate. This would have been in the top 10 also for the league if he had more innings.
Warren’s velocity has seen a jump starting at the half way point of his senior season. He was mostly 89-91 peaking at 92 at times. Now he is sitting 93-94 touching 95. Adam also throws a 2 seamer which got him a ton of groundballs at State Island. He also throws a changeup, curveball and slider/cutter.
Seeing Warren pitch on Youtube, he looks built well. He is listed as 6’1” to 6’3” depending on where you look. His weight is 200 to 215 lbs which is good. It’s hard to see how tall Warren is from the video but he looks as if he can handle innings on his frame. I say that because in 09 he pitched a combine 154 innings.
In an interview with Pending Pinstripes’ Greg Fertel Warren said that the Yankees want him to work on stretching and flexibility. From the interview Warren comes off as a guy who wants to get better, will work hard in the offseason to get his body in the best shape and as an intelligent guy. (Link to the whole article http://www.sportsnewsandscores.com/qa-with-new-york-yankees-pitching-prospect-adam-warren.html )
Outlook:
Warren will probably start off at High A Tampa. I could see him pitching there like Jeremy Bleich did and getting a call up after 10 to 14 starts. Being only 22 to start the season Warren could be an option for the Yankees to make a spot start at the end of next season at the earliest if he dominates hitters like Ian Kennedy did.
NY shouldn’t be worried about inning for Warren since he threw 150 this last year. Kennedy and Warren both entered their first full minor league season at the same age even thou Kennedy was drafted as a junior and Warren as a senior.
Ceiling:
It’s hard to make a good guess on Warren’s ceiling because of his velocity jump. If that is true and he pitches at those velocities it changes how he is as a prospect. If he settles back down to what his velocity was before this season it makes grading him as a prospect easier. As of this point I can’t put a grade or a ceiling on Warren. I think we need to see how he pitches and how his pitches play out. If his velocity stays where it was at Staten Island the Yankees look to have grabbed a steal with their 4th round pick since they signed him for slot $158,000. Only time will tell on Warren’s ceiling, I will give a ceiling of him after the minor league season. I will say a good player comp could be Junichi Tazawa.
Monday, January 11, 2010
How I would draft as the Yankees
Give me upside or give me death.
This is the draft philosophy that I believe that the Yankees should be using concerning the draft. The Yankees spend the most money on their actual team and you would be shocked if they didn't spend money on their draft.
From 06 through the 08 draft(09 complete draft money spent isn't out yet as far as I can find) the Yankees spent $19.8 million on those 3 drafts. That is $6.6 million per draft which is a lot of money. Yet they aren't the #1 spender on the draft in those 3 years.
The #1 team during that time was the Royals. The first big market team was the Sox at #2. The next big team was the Yankees at #8. So there was 7 teams over the Yankees who spent money on the draft. Now this also takes out the Cole not signing. That probably would have been 3 million roughly which would have put the Yankees up to $22.8 million. Even if we take that into account they are #4.
While the Yankees have spent a lot of money on the draft regardless I do think that they have not gone the extra mile for a few guys. Drew Storen was a drafted guy the Yankees couldn't get the pen to the paper. He went to the Nats at #10. I think that the Yankees should take more chances with signability guys.
This is what the Yankees did in 2006 and they got the best draft class that they have had. Since then the drafts have been hit and miss on prospects. I do think that the drafts after that can increase yet so could the 06 draft. If Dellin B stays healthy and dominates as Greg at pending pinstripes said it would be a historic draft.
This is the type of draft that the Yankees should be doing each year. I think that damon oppenheimer is very good at evaluating talent. I just think that he likes college players and pitchers better then HS. Now later in the draft when you need to fill out minor league teams I think that is fine. I would like them to go after HS talent becuase then the org can mold it instead of a college coach who has no incentive to do what is best for the kid. His job is to win games, period.
I do think the signing of Kevin Towers as a consultant will be used to help the draft process. Towers came up as a scout before being a GM. I think he has an eye for talent. Some out there might say that the Padres farm was terrible. I would argue that the owner has to want a guy farm system and if he is limiting how much he could spend on the draft.
Regardless of if Towers helps out, I want Opp to start to take a few more risks to restock the system. I do think that this year could be a pivital one for the Yankees. Their farm system probably slipped to around 20th out of all MLB teams because of the trades and guys doing nothing but putting up terrible stats. Injuries also hurt the farm this year so I think that the Yankees need to draft aggressively this year to restock the farm.
So in the end I want the Yankees to give me upside or give me death.
This is the draft philosophy that I believe that the Yankees should be using concerning the draft. The Yankees spend the most money on their actual team and you would be shocked if they didn't spend money on their draft.
From 06 through the 08 draft(09 complete draft money spent isn't out yet as far as I can find) the Yankees spent $19.8 million on those 3 drafts. That is $6.6 million per draft which is a lot of money. Yet they aren't the #1 spender on the draft in those 3 years.
The #1 team during that time was the Royals. The first big market team was the Sox at #2. The next big team was the Yankees at #8. So there was 7 teams over the Yankees who spent money on the draft. Now this also takes out the Cole not signing. That probably would have been 3 million roughly which would have put the Yankees up to $22.8 million. Even if we take that into account they are #4.
While the Yankees have spent a lot of money on the draft regardless I do think that they have not gone the extra mile for a few guys. Drew Storen was a drafted guy the Yankees couldn't get the pen to the paper. He went to the Nats at #10. I think that the Yankees should take more chances with signability guys.
This is what the Yankees did in 2006 and they got the best draft class that they have had. Since then the drafts have been hit and miss on prospects. I do think that the drafts after that can increase yet so could the 06 draft. If Dellin B stays healthy and dominates as Greg at pending pinstripes said it would be a historic draft.
This is the type of draft that the Yankees should be doing each year. I think that damon oppenheimer is very good at evaluating talent. I just think that he likes college players and pitchers better then HS. Now later in the draft when you need to fill out minor league teams I think that is fine. I would like them to go after HS talent becuase then the org can mold it instead of a college coach who has no incentive to do what is best for the kid. His job is to win games, period.
I do think the signing of Kevin Towers as a consultant will be used to help the draft process. Towers came up as a scout before being a GM. I think he has an eye for talent. Some out there might say that the Padres farm was terrible. I would argue that the owner has to want a guy farm system and if he is limiting how much he could spend on the draft.
Regardless of if Towers helps out, I want Opp to start to take a few more risks to restock the system. I do think that this year could be a pivital one for the Yankees. Their farm system probably slipped to around 20th out of all MLB teams because of the trades and guys doing nothing but putting up terrible stats. Injuries also hurt the farm this year so I think that the Yankees need to draft aggressively this year to restock the farm.
So in the end I want the Yankees to give me upside or give me death.
Friday, January 8, 2010
BA gives out Draft Grades
Over at Baseball America Jim Callis one put up his draft grades for the last 4 drafts. They include the 08 to 05 drafts for each time. Per his comments BA doesn't take into account losing a first round pick, having multiple first round picks or supplemental round picks.
This stance upsets me slightly. They have the Giants have a grade of A for 2007. That year they had 6 of the first 51 picks. The odds of them getting a great prospect is extremely high because of that. Being able to take 6 top 50 talent is huge to restock a farm system with elite talent.
Also BA doesn't taken into account the position of the drafting. The rays have the 3rd best drafting of the 4 years. 2008, 2007 they had the #1 picks 2006 they had the #3 pick and 2005 they had the #8 pick. Tampa never drafted lower then 8th in any round during that time. They get the first pick of each round.
The Yankees had a C for 08, a C for 07, an A for 06 and a C+ for the 05 draft. Some of these grades are in my mind what they should be. 06 was easily the best draft class that the Yankees have had. 07 was the Brackman draft. Now I also don't think that BA has these grades locked. I think the 06 regardless of what happens will be an A. I think the 07 has a change to improve.
07 has a chance to improve. If Brackman regains some of his form and makes the majors the draft grade will improve. Also Romine still has a chance alone to improve this grade just himself. Also Bradley Suttle was injured all season. He had a great year in 08 and was ranked very well by BA. BA also had a coach who said that he liked Suttle more then Montero as a bat. Of course this was before Montero blew up in the minors but he was still at that point considered a top 50 prospect.
My biggest gripe with the grades is this. I don't think you can really grade a draft until 3 or 4 years down the line. All the HS talent after 1 year is either in Low A or the short season ball. Most HS pitchers aren't going to be Phil Hughes and jump up to High A in your first season. Most elite pitching prospects pitch a full season in Low A. While you can tell stuff you most of the time they are facing guys who are good but haven't seen advance pitching and elite pitchers can get by on fastball velocity alone.
Over the next few days I'm going to take a look at each of these drafts and give my own grade. We will see if BA and I can agree or if we will disagree.
This stance upsets me slightly. They have the Giants have a grade of A for 2007. That year they had 6 of the first 51 picks. The odds of them getting a great prospect is extremely high because of that. Being able to take 6 top 50 talent is huge to restock a farm system with elite talent.
Also BA doesn't taken into account the position of the drafting. The rays have the 3rd best drafting of the 4 years. 2008, 2007 they had the #1 picks 2006 they had the #3 pick and 2005 they had the #8 pick. Tampa never drafted lower then 8th in any round during that time. They get the first pick of each round.
The Yankees had a C for 08, a C for 07, an A for 06 and a C+ for the 05 draft. Some of these grades are in my mind what they should be. 06 was easily the best draft class that the Yankees have had. 07 was the Brackman draft. Now I also don't think that BA has these grades locked. I think the 06 regardless of what happens will be an A. I think the 07 has a change to improve.
07 has a chance to improve. If Brackman regains some of his form and makes the majors the draft grade will improve. Also Romine still has a chance alone to improve this grade just himself. Also Bradley Suttle was injured all season. He had a great year in 08 and was ranked very well by BA. BA also had a coach who said that he liked Suttle more then Montero as a bat. Of course this was before Montero blew up in the minors but he was still at that point considered a top 50 prospect.
My biggest gripe with the grades is this. I don't think you can really grade a draft until 3 or 4 years down the line. All the HS talent after 1 year is either in Low A or the short season ball. Most HS pitchers aren't going to be Phil Hughes and jump up to High A in your first season. Most elite pitching prospects pitch a full season in Low A. While you can tell stuff you most of the time they are facing guys who are good but haven't seen advance pitching and elite pitchers can get by on fastball velocity alone.
Over the next few days I'm going to take a look at each of these drafts and give my own grade. We will see if BA and I can agree or if we will disagree.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Sleepers part 1
Each week I'm going to be giving you sleepers to follow this year in the minors. These are guys who I think could jump into top 30 prospect lists around the internet and major outlets.
Nik Turley.
Some Yankee fans reading this(I'm hoping your reading this) will know who Turley is or have heard his name. Nik Turley was an 08 HS draftee. Signed in the 50th round which is the last round of the MLB draft. Turley had a scholarship offer to go to BYU. For the Yankees to get him away from BYU they gave him $125,000. A high bonus for most rounds let alone the last one.
Nik Turley has one thing you can't teach, that is size. Baseball reference, Baseball America and MILB all have Nik Turley listed as 6'7" and 195 lbs. Baseball cube has him listed at 6'3" 230 lbs. BA's handbook had him listed as 6'4" in their recapp. Regardless of the source Turley is 6'4" to 6'7". I tend to think to think that Turley is actually 6'7". Turley also is left handed which is a huge boon to his draft stock since there are not as many good LHP prospects.
Turley throws an average fastball right now sitting in the upper 80's to low 90's right now. BA It is considered average right now. He does throw it on a downward plane which helps to add to the pitch. The Yankees are hoping that his velocity picks up so it is low 90's to mid 90's.
Turley also throws a curve ball right now. His HS coach said it has good spin and velocity coming in at 70-72. It isn't there every time he throws it and most HS pitchers are like that.
Change up: Before being drafted he picked one up a change up in HS. It has developed to be an average pitch right now with potential of being plus.
Results:
This is what Nik has done since being drafted.
2008. Nik threw 8 innings total since he signed on the signing day. His #'s were good with a WHIP of .75 and 13 k's to 0 bb
2009 Nik threw 54.1 innings. That was 10 starts with 1 other game he got into. ERA was 2.82 with 46 k's and 23 bbs. His WHIP was 1.252 with a 7.6 k per 9. This was in the GCL.
54.1 Innings isn't a lot but my guess is that he threw some innings in Extended Spring training where he started also in instructional league. My guess is that he innings total is close to 100 for the year. I base this off the fact that as a senio in HS he threw 67 innings his senior year plus 8 innings in the GCL. That would give him 75 innings that year and the Yankees probably added a few more in instructional league. They would want him to get around 100 this year maybe a little more.
Outlook on Turley. I really like Turley. I like a big lefty who is projectable and who could add in velocity. I believe that Turley could follow the same path as Zach McAllister and boom. I think he will start Low A this year and you could see him really take off at the end of this year or next year. Guys who are left handed and throw an average fastball will always get a chance. I think if Turley can sharpen up his curve ball to a plus pitch and sit in the low 90's he has a ceiling of a #2 starter, of course that will only happen if he adds velocity. If he just sits in the low 90's only then probably a #4 starter.
I do think I'm a little bullish on Turley compared to others. I haven't been crushed by a prospect as others have. But if Turley threw a few mph harder coming out of college he would have been a top 10 round pick easily. Also bigger pitchers take time to master their delivery which is why I think the best if yet to come for Turley.
Nik Turley.
Some Yankee fans reading this(I'm hoping your reading this) will know who Turley is or have heard his name. Nik Turley was an 08 HS draftee. Signed in the 50th round which is the last round of the MLB draft. Turley had a scholarship offer to go to BYU. For the Yankees to get him away from BYU they gave him $125,000. A high bonus for most rounds let alone the last one.
Nik Turley has one thing you can't teach, that is size. Baseball reference, Baseball America and MILB all have Nik Turley listed as 6'7" and 195 lbs. Baseball cube has him listed at 6'3" 230 lbs. BA's handbook had him listed as 6'4" in their recapp. Regardless of the source Turley is 6'4" to 6'7". I tend to think to think that Turley is actually 6'7". Turley also is left handed which is a huge boon to his draft stock since there are not as many good LHP prospects.
Turley throws an average fastball right now sitting in the upper 80's to low 90's right now. BA It is considered average right now. He does throw it on a downward plane which helps to add to the pitch. The Yankees are hoping that his velocity picks up so it is low 90's to mid 90's.
Turley also throws a curve ball right now. His HS coach said it has good spin and velocity coming in at 70-72. It isn't there every time he throws it and most HS pitchers are like that.
Change up: Before being drafted he picked one up a change up in HS. It has developed to be an average pitch right now with potential of being plus.
Results:
This is what Nik has done since being drafted.
2008. Nik threw 8 innings total since he signed on the signing day. His #'s were good with a WHIP of .75 and 13 k's to 0 bb
2009 Nik threw 54.1 innings. That was 10 starts with 1 other game he got into. ERA was 2.82 with 46 k's and 23 bbs. His WHIP was 1.252 with a 7.6 k per 9. This was in the GCL.
54.1 Innings isn't a lot but my guess is that he threw some innings in Extended Spring training where he started also in instructional league. My guess is that he innings total is close to 100 for the year. I base this off the fact that as a senio in HS he threw 67 innings his senior year plus 8 innings in the GCL. That would give him 75 innings that year and the Yankees probably added a few more in instructional league. They would want him to get around 100 this year maybe a little more.
Outlook on Turley. I really like Turley. I like a big lefty who is projectable and who could add in velocity. I believe that Turley could follow the same path as Zach McAllister and boom. I think he will start Low A this year and you could see him really take off at the end of this year or next year. Guys who are left handed and throw an average fastball will always get a chance. I think if Turley can sharpen up his curve ball to a plus pitch and sit in the low 90's he has a ceiling of a #2 starter, of course that will only happen if he adds velocity. If he just sits in the low 90's only then probably a #4 starter.
I do think I'm a little bullish on Turley compared to others. I haven't been crushed by a prospect as others have. But if Turley threw a few mph harder coming out of college he would have been a top 10 round pick easily. Also bigger pitchers take time to master their delivery which is why I think the best if yet to come for Turley.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Andrew Brackman.
Andrew Brackman. To Yankee fans who follow the minors this is one name that prompts two reactions. Either you say the kid is coming off TJ surgery, give him some time. He hasn't thrown that many innings in his career. Give him time. The second is that Brackman is a bust.
I believe that we need to give Brackman more time. Yes he isn't young for the league but he threw 149.1 innings at NC State. That is the total amount of innings for his 3 years in college. That isn't a lot of innings for a player to learn his craft. Now this year he threw 106.2 innings.
Brackman was also healthy for the whole season. So he threw more innings then he had in his college and pro career and stayed healthy. That is a huge thing especially for a guy coming of a major surgery. So let's give him some credit for that.
The word bust gets thrown out very quickly now. I've even some comments at Yankee blogs and message boards. They say we should never have drafted Brackman. To me that is just crazy. Yes Brackman hasn't pitched in the majors but he was a top 10 talent in the draft that the Yankees got on the 30th position.
Here is the scouting report on Brackman before the draft.
Fastball. Sits 92-97 mph with plus movement and life in the zone.
Curveball. 78-81 mph with a plus potential.
Changeup. Average pitch.
Command. Very good fastball command needs refinement on his offspeed pitch.
Here is what Frankie P(AOL Fanhouse) said of Brackman's fastball. "A: (Frankie) TJ Surgery or not I don’t know if anyone matches Andrew Brackman’s 100 MPH heat. I personally got him 4 times at 100 so I’m going with him." This was a question about who had the best fastball in the minors who hadn't made the majors. This chat was done april 17th 2008 before Brackman had completely recovered from TJ surgery.
Next I would ask the person who would you want the Yankees to draft instead of Brackman? Some might say Jordan Zimmerman. What most people don't know about Zimmerman is that he went to a D III school. He wasn't a top prospect entering the draft mostly because he was only average at that DIII school before staring in the cape cod.
How about Mike Stanton, why didn't we draft him. Stanton was a HS prospect. He had multiple offers to play baseball. But what made a bunch of teams not draft Stanton very early is because he had a scholarship to USC with an invitation to walk on their football team. There were also some worries about his k rate which is a concern still to this day.
With the #30 pick the Yanks need to go with a huge upside guy. That is what they did. So far it hasn't work out as Brackman or the Yankees have wanted. But lets look at his stats from his first full season in professional ball.
He pitched 106 innings. Had 103 k's but 76 walks(Yikes!), 106 hits and an era of 5.91. Those are some good signs there. K per 9 was 8.7 which is good. HR per 9 was .7. He seemed to also figure it out the last 2 months of the season with 11 bb's to 24 k's in August and September.
Another point is look at Dan Bard. In 08 he was terrible. He walked 78 batters in 75 innings. That is 2 more walks than Brackman in 31 fewer innings. He also had around a 6 k per 9 rate then. Bard wasn't coming off TJ and he also wasn't 6'10. He is a 6'4" pitcher which is the idea size. He turned it around and got on the fast track.
Randy Johnson is the largest HOF(Yes I know he isn't in yet but he is a lock) pitcher. As a 22 year old prospect in AA, that HOF walked 128 batters in 140 innings, that comes to an 8.2 BB per 9. If you look at Randy's career he doesn't get his walk rate under 4 until he was 29.
This is just one bloggers opinion but I think the jury is still out on Brackman. I do think it's funny how a guy can go from an elite talent to a bust in 1 season. No one can struggle anymore even in the minors. To me that is just wrong, is Jesus struggles this year people won't be up in arms to call him a bust. From all account Brackman works on his craft, he is trying to get better. Let's cut him some slack, wish him to have two seasons without injury and see if they are successful or terrible. Only then do I think that we will know if Brackman is leaning towards being a bust or a prospect who just took a little longer.
I believe that we need to give Brackman more time. Yes he isn't young for the league but he threw 149.1 innings at NC State. That is the total amount of innings for his 3 years in college. That isn't a lot of innings for a player to learn his craft. Now this year he threw 106.2 innings.
Brackman was also healthy for the whole season. So he threw more innings then he had in his college and pro career and stayed healthy. That is a huge thing especially for a guy coming of a major surgery. So let's give him some credit for that.
The word bust gets thrown out very quickly now. I've even some comments at Yankee blogs and message boards. They say we should never have drafted Brackman. To me that is just crazy. Yes Brackman hasn't pitched in the majors but he was a top 10 talent in the draft that the Yankees got on the 30th position.
Here is the scouting report on Brackman before the draft.
Fastball. Sits 92-97 mph with plus movement and life in the zone.
Curveball. 78-81 mph with a plus potential.
Changeup. Average pitch.
Command. Very good fastball command needs refinement on his offspeed pitch.
Here is what Frankie P(AOL Fanhouse) said of Brackman's fastball. "A: (Frankie) TJ Surgery or not I don’t know if anyone matches Andrew Brackman’s 100 MPH heat. I personally got him 4 times at 100 so I’m going with him." This was a question about who had the best fastball in the minors who hadn't made the majors. This chat was done april 17th 2008 before Brackman had completely recovered from TJ surgery.
Next I would ask the person who would you want the Yankees to draft instead of Brackman? Some might say Jordan Zimmerman. What most people don't know about Zimmerman is that he went to a D III school. He wasn't a top prospect entering the draft mostly because he was only average at that DIII school before staring in the cape cod.
How about Mike Stanton, why didn't we draft him. Stanton was a HS prospect. He had multiple offers to play baseball. But what made a bunch of teams not draft Stanton very early is because he had a scholarship to USC with an invitation to walk on their football team. There were also some worries about his k rate which is a concern still to this day.
With the #30 pick the Yanks need to go with a huge upside guy. That is what they did. So far it hasn't work out as Brackman or the Yankees have wanted. But lets look at his stats from his first full season in professional ball.
He pitched 106 innings. Had 103 k's but 76 walks(Yikes!), 106 hits and an era of 5.91. Those are some good signs there. K per 9 was 8.7 which is good. HR per 9 was .7. He seemed to also figure it out the last 2 months of the season with 11 bb's to 24 k's in August and September.
Another point is look at Dan Bard. In 08 he was terrible. He walked 78 batters in 75 innings. That is 2 more walks than Brackman in 31 fewer innings. He also had around a 6 k per 9 rate then. Bard wasn't coming off TJ and he also wasn't 6'10. He is a 6'4" pitcher which is the idea size. He turned it around and got on the fast track.
Randy Johnson is the largest HOF(Yes I know he isn't in yet but he is a lock) pitcher. As a 22 year old prospect in AA, that HOF walked 128 batters in 140 innings, that comes to an 8.2 BB per 9. If you look at Randy's career he doesn't get his walk rate under 4 until he was 29.
This is just one bloggers opinion but I think the jury is still out on Brackman. I do think it's funny how a guy can go from an elite talent to a bust in 1 season. No one can struggle anymore even in the minors. To me that is just wrong, is Jesus struggles this year people won't be up in arms to call him a bust. From all account Brackman works on his craft, he is trying to get better. Let's cut him some slack, wish him to have two seasons without injury and see if they are successful or terrible. Only then do I think that we will know if Brackman is leaning towards being a bust or a prospect who just took a little longer.
What this site will be about
Hello there blog world. For my first post I wanted to give you an idea of what I will be doing with this blog. I will be following the Yankees prospects in the minors and providing content on who I think the Yankees should be drafting this June in the draft.
But wait Jake, there are a lot of great sites out there providing info on the minors for the Yanks. Yes there are. Mike at River Ave Blues is great, so is Greg Fertel at Pending Pinstripes and lastly is EJ at TYU. Each of them does a great job and I'm not here to replace them. I'm going to provide my own thoughts on prospects that Yankee fans want to talk about.
I really got the idea for this blog when I heard that Lane at Nomaas was leaving. I loved his draft spot, it was a frequent stop for me to go to each day. I want to do a lot about the draft but also about the minors which I follow closely. So that is what this site will be about. I hope you enjoy it.
But wait Jake, there are a lot of great sites out there providing info on the minors for the Yanks. Yes there are. Mike at River Ave Blues is great, so is Greg Fertel at Pending Pinstripes and lastly is EJ at TYU. Each of them does a great job and I'm not here to replace them. I'm going to provide my own thoughts on prospects that Yankee fans want to talk about.
I really got the idea for this blog when I heard that Lane at Nomaas was leaving. I loved his draft spot, it was a frequent stop for me to go to each day. I want to do a lot about the draft but also about the minors which I follow closely. So that is what this site will be about. I hope you enjoy it.
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