A Look Back

I picked up BA’s 07 prospect book off my shelf today and I thought I would do a look back at the top 10 prospects of that year. Also would give BA’s ceiling and if they have reached that as of yet plus what I think of the prospects.


1.) Phil Hughes. Hughes was the top pitching prospect in the minors. I’m not going to give that to Dice K since he never spent any time in the minors. Hughes ceiling was that of an ace pitcher, a legit # 1 starter. His ceiling has diminished slightly mostly because of some injuries that seem to have sapped a little velocity. Now he looks like a very good #2 starter. He will compete this year for the #5 spot with Joba.

2.) Jose Tabata. BA was always very high on Jose. They said he could reach the majors by the end of 2008. Tabata was the main piece that the Pirates got in the Nady trade. His prospect status has taken a hit also. Good but not great seasons and a lack of power seem to have cooled Jose’s prospect status from elite to very good. BA was also wrong, 2009 came without Tabata making it to the majors. He probably will go back to AAA this year to work on his game.

3.) Humberto Sanchez. The key piece in the Gary Sheffield trade. Humberto had wowed scouts at the future game. Sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 Humberto had the big fastball and a plus slider that gave him 2 legit big league pitches. Hungry hungry Humberto was probably his downfall. He never could keep his weight in check and it probably lead to his injuries also. He pitched last year for a grand total of 35.2 innings. Big bust but the Yankees did get rid of Sheffield’s salary so that is a plus.

4.) Dellin Betances. Dellin was an 8th round draft pick of the Yankees in 06. With a potential of 2 plus pitches scouts were drooling over the 6’8” giant. BA later admitted it was extremely bullish on Dellin. Dellin so far hasn’t gotten past High A Tampa and also hasn’t been healthy with 2 injuries in 3 years. His ceiling is still that of a top rotation starter but no one knows if he will be able to master a repeatable delivery to make it there.

5.) Joba Chamberlain. Either he will be a front line starter or a closer. We won’t debate which but for the $1.1 million signing bonus the Yankees got a steal. A drop in velocity has cooled some people on Joba but I’m of the opinion that it was Joba pushing past his innings high and the Yankees handling of him. Think of it like this, Joba has cost the Yankees roughly $2.3 million in salary and signing bonus. He has generated $25.3 million in value according to fangraphs.

6.) Ian Kennedy. Most people hated this pick from the Yankees. I think that the Yankees knew that Joba was going to fall more and they could take him a little later. While Joba’s ceiling was huge Kennedy was a #3 starter. He had great #’s at USC against really good competitions. He got a little overhyped at one point but his ceiling is still a #3 starter but not in the AL East. He was a part of the trade to bring Granderson to NY so I would call the investment in him well worth it. He will probably be given every opportunity to be the Diamondbacks #4 starter.

7.) Tyler Clippard. Another Yankee prospect that got overhyped but this was by the fans more so then the media. Tyler actually threw harder in HS then in the minors. He was traded to Washington and finally made the majors for good last year. While he did finally make the majors he was a starter in the minors so his value is lower. With that being said he threw 60 innings last year and pitched well having a K/9 of 10.

8.) J. Brent Cox. Being drafted in 2005 in the 2nd round of the draft. The Texas longhorns closer after Houston Street left had lots of Yankee fans and other people thinking he would be the closer of the future. He was always better suited for a setup role better then a closer because while he has the mental make up to close games in college his stuff wasn’t closer material in the majors. J.B never made the majors and appears to have left the game of baseball.

9.) Kevin Whelan was drafted by the Tigers and shipped to the Yankees along with the Hungry Humberto in the Sheffield trade. Scouts loved 2 things of Whelan’s game. His velocity which is 92-94, it has good deception since he was a catcher before being converted to the mound. Whelan also has a plus to plus plus splitter. Problem for Whelan is that it appears he has no idea at times where the ball is going. While his K/9 is 11.4 for his career in the minors his BB/9 is 5.4 and doesn’t appear to be getting better. He probably will go back to AAA this year as a 26 year old reliever. He was rule 5 eligible and no one took Whelan. He probably won’t make it out of the minors.

10.) Brett “grit” Gardner. Gardner is either loved by Yankee fans or hated. He played a lot of time last year since he won the starting CF job from Melky. He will be given the LF job right now with his plus defense to help him out he will bat #9. The Yankees have spent less than $1.8 million on salaries for Gardner and he has given them $14.4 million in value. I would say that is a great investment. This will be a pivotal year for Gardner thou, he will either establish himself as an everyday OF or be a 4th outfield. Regardless of what happens Gardner has helped the Yankees win a championship and that is all the farm system can ask for.

So that is the top 10 prospects going into the 07 season. Looking at this list the Yankees actually did really well. They got 4 guys who made the majors out of this list. Tabata still has a chance to make the majors also. That would be a 50% hit on their top 10 prospects. I would call that pretty good. Not every prospect will ever make the majors even ones who make top 10 lists. This list could even get better if Joba becomes what scouts think and so does Hughes because of the guys who made the majors 3 of them are still 25 and under.