Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Quick observations from Sickels top 20 list.

Today as I was waiting to get on a conference call for work when I saw a tweet from John Sickels. He had put out his preliminary top 20 list for Yankees. I had to go over and check it out. First I will say I greatly respect him for all the work he does himself on his site and the book he annually puts out. Another reason I respect Mr. Sickels is that we are both from Des Moines Iowa and both went to Northwest Missouri Sate University. Also he lives in Lawrence which is about 15 minutes away from my house here in Kansas City.

Here is the link to the site and list. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/15/1878701/new-york-yankees-top-20-prospects-for-2011

Things that stand out to me about the list:
1. Hector Noesi has a very aggressive ranking. Hector did have a very good season this year. At 3 levels he pitched 160.1 innings with 153 strikeouts. He had an era of 3.20 with a FIP being in the 3’s. My only concern with looking at his stats is that his K rate dropped each level he jumped. Luckily his walk rate stayed pretty consistent never getting over 1.9 per 9. Hopefully Hector can keep dominating hitters with his fastball velocity and command. If he could only get a plus breaking ball he would be higher than a #3 starter but right now he has a high floor. I would call him the Ian Kennedy of the farm right now because of that high floor.

2. David Adams injury sapped a ton of prospect status. Sickels ranked him a C+ and I really wonder what he would have been if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Adams was destroying the ball and it wasn’t over 50 at bats but 173. His triple slash line was .309/.393/.507 for a nice .900 OPS. He also was doing this while playing in one of the hardest divisions for hitters. His wOBA was .403 and his wRC+ was 148 both great #’s. While his defensive isn’t going to be his calling card I think it’s really hard to gauge a guy defensively without a lot of data. Also with any prospect most of these guys are young men and do improve with more professional coaching.

3. Eduardo Nunez. John put that he is looking more like a utility guy. If that is the case I don’t think he should be ranked. I would have subbed out almost any prospect with some upside for him. I’ve slowly come around on Nunez (not quite how Mike A at RAB is)that he isn't good and is living off 1 good season some time ago . I believe only starting players or starters should make a top 20 list unless they have a possibility of being a closer.

4. Ramon Flores. This guy just keeps getting over looked by a ton of people. At 3 levels the 18 year old hit a combined .303/.390/.419 for an 808 OPS. He got 20 at bats at High A even before getting any at bats at Low A. The Yankees are very impressive with him and one major factor I believe going for Flores is his batting eye. He had 31 walks to 42 strike outs for an 18 year old. That is huge. The power #’s will develop and I think to somewhat of a degree a batting eye can develop. But that being said some kids really have a great eye and Flores is one of them. Where Flores got most of his at bats was at the Gulf coast league where he wOBA .433 with a wRC+ of 171 which are huge numbers for an 18 year old kid.

Those are just some quick observations after taking a quick look at Sickels list. I would have liked to have Bryan Mitchell be up since of the guys going to Low A I think he has the most potential. Hopefully he along with Brett Marshall will be the M and M boys next year that Yankee prospect watchers will be clamoring over.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Disappointments down on the Farm 2010 edition.

As Yankee fans are waiting for Cliff Lee to decide who he wants to play for next year I thought I would get my mind off the situation by making a blog post. So I thought I would look at some players who I was hoping to have good years and didn’t quite do it. The farm system as a whole had a great year, these are some guys who I was hoping would do well.

1. Bryan Mitchell. Coming into this year Mitchell was the number 11 prospect. His scouting report was a 88 to 92 mph fastball that could touch 94. That wasn’t even Mitchells best pitch which was a very good curveball which BA said could be the best in the system. Reading the scouting reports and the face it looked like Mitchell was going to start at Low A I was really excited. Mitchell ended up going to the Gulf Coast league to pitch. While he was good there he wasn’t great. The biggest concern was the BB/9 which was 4.8. He did have a good K rate at 7.8 per 9. Mitchell will be 20 years old going to Low A next year so hopefully he will have a great year to push himself back up to almost a top 10 prospect.

2. Nik Turly. I’ve always been a big Turley fan. Big lefties have a place in my heart. This was the year that I was sure the Yankees would send to Low A. Hurley was 20 years old going into the year and had been with the organization for over a year going into this season. He went to Staten Island to pitch and was ok. His K rate was ok at 6.9 but the big lefty had a 4.2 walk rate. I think Turley is starting to run out of time with the Yankees. If he doesn’t go to Low A again and probably really dominate I think he will go to college. Good thing for Turley he got a full ride paid for by the Yankees.

3. Caleb Cotham. He was considered a fast risers if he was healthy. Probably for Caleb was he wasn’t. He had surgery and didn’t pit at all. Hopefully starting next year he can be healthy and be a fast mover.

4. Jairo Herredia. What to say about Jairo. Mike A over at RAB had nicknamed him the Dominican Hughes. Well Hughes never took his conditioning in question. For 2 straight years Jairo has done that and struggled. To make matters worst the Yankees moved him over to relief pitcher. The guy is 20 for the whole year but the Yankees moved him to relief. Not a good sign. Hopefully Jairo decides that he wants to be a big pitcher and comes to next year ready to pitch.

5. Evan Deluca. He is another guy I had heard some hype going around after the 2009 draft. Deluca is a big time lefty that the Yankees decided to go hard after at the deadline of the draft. There were reports the he had a great arm but has no idea where the ball is going. Looking at his stats I think that is very accurate. He had a 10.4 K per 9 but a 8.3 BB per 9. Luckily for Deluca he is still young so hopefully in instructional league they were able start to harness his big time left arm.

Those are 5 guys in the system that had down years. Seeing the list I’m surprised that I didn’t have any position players. That being said the Yankee farm system has been all about pitching for some time, only recently has Damon Opp has drafted some high upside position players. Now out of these guys some still have good upside, especially Bryan Mitchell. I have a ton of confidence in him out of this group of guys. Hopefully next year all of these guys will have had good seasons to either improve their prospect status or make them prospects again.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Thoughts on Brett Marshall

Over at scouting the Sally, Mike Newman has a scouting report from when he was able to see Marshall this summer. http://scoutingthesally.com/?p=2379 That is the link to the scouting report and I highly recommend it because Mike does a great job on the site. One reason I enjoy reading Mike’s take on prospects compared to other guys is because he sees the guy, takes video of them along with notes. He and his site are a major boon to us prospect nuts. Mike also is a nice guy who will answer emails and tweets, I’ve bothered him a few different times.

On twitter Mike and I had a nice exchange after I read his scouting report on Marshall. I had asked him if he thought that with a plus slider that could Marshall could be a number 2 starter. Mike wasn’t sure if he had that ceiling but he did mention that a scout told him that he thought Marshall could be something special. I was a little taken by that. I thought Marshall would be a good #3 starter and contrary to some NY fans those are good things to have in a farm system.
One major thing to keep in mind about Marshall is that he got the highest bonus of any Yankee draft picks from the 08 draft. He got 800k from the Yankees as a 6th round pick instead of going to Rice. So even thou Jeremy Bleich was a supplement first round pick, he actually got less than the high school pitcher out of Texas. To me this shows that the Yankees thought that had something impressive in Marshall.

2010 was a year that Marshal had to prove something because of his 2009. In 2009 the Yankees were very aggressive with him and sent him to Low A as a 19 year old kid. On top of the very aggressive move to send him there they tweaked his mechanics and said no more slider Mr. Marshall. Good old Nardi Contreras taught him a curve and off he went. Problem for Marshall and the Yankees was he blew his elbow out and required Tommy John surgery. So this year being the first one back for Marshall it’s very encouraging to read Mike’s scouting report on him. One major thing to take note is that the Yankees gave Marshall his slider back. That’s important because Marshall did an interview with the guys over at Nomaas.org and he said he blew his elbow out on a curve ball.

Fast forward to this year and Marshall comes back and he comes back a different pitcher than he was before the injury. The first year back from Tommy John surgery usually the pitchers have the velocity back but not the command. It doesn’t appear to be the case with Marshall. In 87 innings in 2009 Marshall had a BB/9 of 3.81 compared to 2010 when it was 2.75 in 72 innings at the same level.
Marshall also improved one major stat and that his is k/bb rate. In 2009 it was 1.62 compared to 2010 when it was 2.55. All of this tells me that his command should actually improve and he have a better rate in the future. I believe that this is one stat that you can take stock in when evaluating prospects because it eliminates the people behind the mound. This is all on the pitcher.

There are some concerns when it comes to Marshall thou. I would like his strike out rate to be higher. The strikeout rate is one reason that at AAA Zach McAllister a similar prospect failed. McAllister went from a top 10 Yankee prospect to a player to be named later guy in the Austin Kearns trade. Brett can help himself and not fall into the same trap and that is sharpen up his slider. Improving the slider will give him a very good strikeout weapon to go along with an improving change up. Innings are also a concern for Marshall since he missed a year in development. But for the Yankees that isn’t too much of a concern because they can be patient with him because of the pitching that is starting to creep into the upper minors.

Now while he has some concerns there is a ton to really like. In my mind one major plus going for Marshall is how he has developed a manipulation of his fastball. While his 2 seam fastball was 89-91 what I really liked was from Mike’s scouting report is that he was able to sink it and cut it. Being able to move the ball different ways keeps hitters off balance which is what pitching is all about. Throw that he can run his 4 seam fastball up to 94-95 it makes his fastball play up. While Marshall has good fastball velocity he doesn’t have that big fastball that some prospect watchers want. With that being said I will take a guy who can manipulate the ball over a big fastball. Greg Maddux was a great pitcher because of that ability not because of huge velocity. The ability to change eye levels something Marshall also did while Mike was scouting him shows his pitching IQ which bodes well for his maturation as a pitcher and a very good prospect.

Coming into this year Marshall had fallen out of Baseball America’s top 30 prospects. I think with his performance in the sally I think he will definitely jump back into the mix. My guess is that Marshall will come in at the back end of the teens because of a deep Yankee farm system. That ranking isn’t being disrespectful to Marshall, it is just showing how good the Yankee farm system is.

Next year could be the year that Marshall really breaks out too because it will be his 2nd year from his Tommy John surgery. Even if Marshall never develops into an ace of a team like the Yankees there is a ton of value in mid rotation guys. I can’t wait to see what Marshall does in High A next year. With a good first half he could make a push for a AA spot by the end o the season.