Thoughts on Brett Marshall

Over at scouting the Sally, Mike Newman has a scouting report from when he was able to see Marshall this summer. http://scoutingthesally.com/?p=2379 That is the link to the scouting report and I highly recommend it because Mike does a great job on the site. One reason I enjoy reading Mike’s take on prospects compared to other guys is because he sees the guy, takes video of them along with notes. He and his site are a major boon to us prospect nuts. Mike also is a nice guy who will answer emails and tweets, I’ve bothered him a few different times.

On twitter Mike and I had a nice exchange after I read his scouting report on Marshall. I had asked him if he thought that with a plus slider that could Marshall could be a number 2 starter. Mike wasn’t sure if he had that ceiling but he did mention that a scout told him that he thought Marshall could be something special. I was a little taken by that. I thought Marshall would be a good #3 starter and contrary to some NY fans those are good things to have in a farm system.
One major thing to keep in mind about Marshall is that he got the highest bonus of any Yankee draft picks from the 08 draft. He got 800k from the Yankees as a 6th round pick instead of going to Rice. So even thou Jeremy Bleich was a supplement first round pick, he actually got less than the high school pitcher out of Texas. To me this shows that the Yankees thought that had something impressive in Marshall.

2010 was a year that Marshal had to prove something because of his 2009. In 2009 the Yankees were very aggressive with him and sent him to Low A as a 19 year old kid. On top of the very aggressive move to send him there they tweaked his mechanics and said no more slider Mr. Marshall. Good old Nardi Contreras taught him a curve and off he went. Problem for Marshall and the Yankees was he blew his elbow out and required Tommy John surgery. So this year being the first one back for Marshall it’s very encouraging to read Mike’s scouting report on him. One major thing to take note is that the Yankees gave Marshall his slider back. That’s important because Marshall did an interview with the guys over at Nomaas.org and he said he blew his elbow out on a curve ball.

Fast forward to this year and Marshall comes back and he comes back a different pitcher than he was before the injury. The first year back from Tommy John surgery usually the pitchers have the velocity back but not the command. It doesn’t appear to be the case with Marshall. In 87 innings in 2009 Marshall had a BB/9 of 3.81 compared to 2010 when it was 2.75 in 72 innings at the same level.
Marshall also improved one major stat and that his is k/bb rate. In 2009 it was 1.62 compared to 2010 when it was 2.55. All of this tells me that his command should actually improve and he have a better rate in the future. I believe that this is one stat that you can take stock in when evaluating prospects because it eliminates the people behind the mound. This is all on the pitcher.

There are some concerns when it comes to Marshall thou. I would like his strike out rate to be higher. The strikeout rate is one reason that at AAA Zach McAllister a similar prospect failed. McAllister went from a top 10 Yankee prospect to a player to be named later guy in the Austin Kearns trade. Brett can help himself and not fall into the same trap and that is sharpen up his slider. Improving the slider will give him a very good strikeout weapon to go along with an improving change up. Innings are also a concern for Marshall since he missed a year in development. But for the Yankees that isn’t too much of a concern because they can be patient with him because of the pitching that is starting to creep into the upper minors.

Now while he has some concerns there is a ton to really like. In my mind one major plus going for Marshall is how he has developed a manipulation of his fastball. While his 2 seam fastball was 89-91 what I really liked was from Mike’s scouting report is that he was able to sink it and cut it. Being able to move the ball different ways keeps hitters off balance which is what pitching is all about. Throw that he can run his 4 seam fastball up to 94-95 it makes his fastball play up. While Marshall has good fastball velocity he doesn’t have that big fastball that some prospect watchers want. With that being said I will take a guy who can manipulate the ball over a big fastball. Greg Maddux was a great pitcher because of that ability not because of huge velocity. The ability to change eye levels something Marshall also did while Mike was scouting him shows his pitching IQ which bodes well for his maturation as a pitcher and a very good prospect.

Coming into this year Marshall had fallen out of Baseball America’s top 30 prospects. I think with his performance in the sally I think he will definitely jump back into the mix. My guess is that Marshall will come in at the back end of the teens because of a deep Yankee farm system. That ranking isn’t being disrespectful to Marshall, it is just showing how good the Yankee farm system is.

Next year could be the year that Marshall really breaks out too because it will be his 2nd year from his Tommy John surgery. Even if Marshall never develops into an ace of a team like the Yankees there is a ton of value in mid rotation guys. I can’t wait to see what Marshall does in High A next year. With a good first half he could make a push for a AA spot by the end o the season.