Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Quick observations from Sickels top 20 list.

Today as I was waiting to get on a conference call for work when I saw a tweet from John Sickels. He had put out his preliminary top 20 list for Yankees. I had to go over and check it out. First I will say I greatly respect him for all the work he does himself on his site and the book he annually puts out. Another reason I respect Mr. Sickels is that we are both from Des Moines Iowa and both went to Northwest Missouri Sate University. Also he lives in Lawrence which is about 15 minutes away from my house here in Kansas City.

Here is the link to the site and list. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/15/1878701/new-york-yankees-top-20-prospects-for-2011

Things that stand out to me about the list:
1. Hector Noesi has a very aggressive ranking. Hector did have a very good season this year. At 3 levels he pitched 160.1 innings with 153 strikeouts. He had an era of 3.20 with a FIP being in the 3’s. My only concern with looking at his stats is that his K rate dropped each level he jumped. Luckily his walk rate stayed pretty consistent never getting over 1.9 per 9. Hopefully Hector can keep dominating hitters with his fastball velocity and command. If he could only get a plus breaking ball he would be higher than a #3 starter but right now he has a high floor. I would call him the Ian Kennedy of the farm right now because of that high floor.

2. David Adams injury sapped a ton of prospect status. Sickels ranked him a C+ and I really wonder what he would have been if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Adams was destroying the ball and it wasn’t over 50 at bats but 173. His triple slash line was .309/.393/.507 for a nice .900 OPS. He also was doing this while playing in one of the hardest divisions for hitters. His wOBA was .403 and his wRC+ was 148 both great #’s. While his defensive isn’t going to be his calling card I think it’s really hard to gauge a guy defensively without a lot of data. Also with any prospect most of these guys are young men and do improve with more professional coaching.

3. Eduardo Nunez. John put that he is looking more like a utility guy. If that is the case I don’t think he should be ranked. I would have subbed out almost any prospect with some upside for him. I’ve slowly come around on Nunez (not quite how Mike A at RAB is)that he isn't good and is living off 1 good season some time ago . I believe only starting players or starters should make a top 20 list unless they have a possibility of being a closer.

4. Ramon Flores. This guy just keeps getting over looked by a ton of people. At 3 levels the 18 year old hit a combined .303/.390/.419 for an 808 OPS. He got 20 at bats at High A even before getting any at bats at Low A. The Yankees are very impressive with him and one major factor I believe going for Flores is his batting eye. He had 31 walks to 42 strike outs for an 18 year old. That is huge. The power #’s will develop and I think to somewhat of a degree a batting eye can develop. But that being said some kids really have a great eye and Flores is one of them. Where Flores got most of his at bats was at the Gulf coast league where he wOBA .433 with a wRC+ of 171 which are huge numbers for an 18 year old kid.

Those are just some quick observations after taking a quick look at Sickels list. I would have liked to have Bryan Mitchell be up since of the guys going to Low A I think he has the most potential. Hopefully he along with Brett Marshall will be the M and M boys next year that Yankee prospect watchers will be clamoring over.

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