Projecting players

One of the main things that organizations look at is present tools and skills but they also keep an eye on the future. Most scouts grade their present tools along with what their future tools should be when they get to the majors. They draft and sign kids who has the potential in their eyes to gain something. The problem with this is that I believe more times than it doesn’t translate.
Here are a couple examples.

When the Yankees drafted Zach McAllister a lot of people thought that when he would add mass and muscle to his frame that he would throw harder. Well fast forward 3 seasons of data and he has stayed at the same velocity. Most people were in love with the idea that Zach would throw harder. The guy is 6’6” which is a large player. A lot of people think that the bigger you are the harder you will throw and that isn’t always the case.

Austin Jackson is another player that people projected very well. After he blew up in Tampa most prospect experts thought that he would develop 15-20 hr power. He slugged .566 at Tampa, since then his slugging % has been .419, .405. So his power numbers have gone down each year. I believe that this was one of the main reasons that the Yankees traded him.

Now I’m not saying that players don’t get better or that the Yankees should draft differently. There are some players who got better. Jesus Montero is one of them. When Jesus was signed he had the potential to have a 80 power when he matured. Well in this year’s BA prospect handbook they write that Montero is almost there right now so he has developed.

Arodys Vizcaino is one guy who did mature under the Yankees. When they signed him he threw around 90 mph. He was touching 96 when they traded him to the braves with Melky. He also grew 2 inches.

So players do get better and do improve but not all the time. Some players aren’t going to throw harder and in fact some players actually throw harder in high school than in the pro’s. Tyler Clippard is one of those players. Mostly this is because in high school pitchers throw once a week so they have more days to rest. I do think that this is one reason that the Yankees tend to draft college pitchers. They know more about how they are going to throw. If they need a mechanical chance they will make it and sometimes that helps. It helped 2 Yankee farm hands in Jose Ramirez and David Phelps. Both gained velocity this year.

All I’m saying is that when we see these kids throwing in the low 90’s we get thoughts that in 2-3 years that they will be sitting mid 90’s. Most of the time that just doesn’t happen.