Yankee pitching prospects by ceiling

Last week I looked at the Yankees and position players looking for areas of weakness. Now I’m going to do the same thing with the starting rotation.

Number 1 starters don’t grow on trees. Good thing for the Yankees they have 1 signed for some time. C.C is a legit #1 with the added benefit of pitching 220 innings a season. C.C gives the Yankees both a #1 starter potential along with workhorse innings. C.C is locked up at least through 2011. I don’t think he will opt out of his contract thou, I say this because at that point his deal will be 23 million a year. No one is going to pay him that much money especially when Halladay just signed an extension at 20 million. I do see C.C getting an extension to lock him in for a couple more years but this is getting off the subject. In the minors the Yankees have 2 guys who profile as front of the rotation starters. Those two pitchers being Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman with the bad part being that neither is more than a 5% chance of reaching that potential. Brackman has the better chance but after this year I don’t see it. Remember this is their ceiling, their floor is to never make the majors and both look more that way now.

Number 2 starter is AJ Burnett. AJ is locked up through the 2013 season. A number two starter is suppose to have 2 plus pitches with average command and an average third pitch. In the Yankees minor league system I think there are 2 guys who could fill that role. 1 of them is Manny Banuelos. Manny will need to sharpen up his breaking ball and changeup along with a consistent fastball. Some see Manny more of a mid rotation starter but Frankie P at AOL Fanhouse profiled Manny as a #2 starter believing that his velocity will be more consistent with both offspeed pitches improving. I would say Manny has the best poise of any Yankee farm hand which is an intangible that isn’t taught. The second pitcher in the minor who could fill that is Jose Ramirez blew up this year even thou BA doesn’t rank him in the top 20 of the Yankees system. I believe this is because he hasn’t pitched in full season ball yet other than a relief appearance with Tampa. Velocity is great on his fastball and he flashed a plus plus change up according to Kiley M formerly of BP. 2 plus pitches is what is needed and he would have that. An average breaking ball is all that Ramirez needs now along with polish and innings.

Number 3 starter for the Yankees is Andy Pettitte. Andy is going to pitch for who knows how many years. I like that he goes year by year which helps the Yankees especially in their development. The Yankees have a number of guys who profile to do what Andy does which is give a bunch of quality innings. The number one guy who can do that is Zach McAllister. He is a big kid who has 2 good pitches with very good command. I do think nationally he gets a little undervalued because he doesn’t blow up the radar gun. In the last two years he has 2.09 ERA in 08 between Low A and High A and a 2.23 ERA in AA. Also his WHIP the last 2 years was 1.075 in 08 and 1.083 in AA. His K rate actually improved in AA over High A also.

Number 4-5 starters. Javy Zasquez and (Joba or Phil) are the starters. Javy will only be here for 1 year unless he dominates and only wants to play for the Yankees. Joba or Phil will both be here for some time. I think these type of starters are the same and the Yankees have guys who can fill these positions very easily, in fact after 2010 they could both be the number four and five starters. If they don’t fill that role names that could come up for that is Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Hector Noesi or Jairo Heredia. All of these guys project to be number 4 or number 5 starters with some having a little more ceiling.

Overall the Yankees have done a very good job pitching wise compared to the hitter’s side. I’m not including Joba or Phil as prospects because their status as prospects is now gone. Joba has legit #1 type stuff if he can harness it and get velocity back on his fastball. Phil has number 2 type stuff so really the Yankees are in a great place. Pitching is something that every team needs a lot of because starters get hurt, a lot. One I didn’t place was Jeremy Bleich mostly because right now his ceiling is up in the air. If his velocity jump is legit then he has more of a #2 type starter with his plus change up and average curve or flip flopping those rankings based on the scout. If his velocity jump is not real and he goes back to where he was in college then his ceiling is a #3 guy which is not bad.

Why most people want top of the rotation starters for every starting pitching prospect that just isn’t realistic. If you look at the ones the Yankees have they both have floors that are super low. Most guys who are legit # 1’s don’t fall to the Yankees or if they do it’s because they have warts. Brackman and Dellin both have some big warts. What you want from your SP prospects is to get big leaguers to fill your roster. You want that most of all because they are cheap and provide huge $$ value for the team.