Baseball season starts in 6 days and I’m pumped. While I love college basketball after the first weekend of the tourney my excitement goes down. Luckily this year the tourney was very good but now baseball season is starting Sunday. College and high school baseball has been going on for a little bit now. It’s 10 weeks away from the draft. So I will be looking at players that I think the Yankees could draft
Usually the Yankees get in the first round players who struggled because of injuries or other concerns. But one guy who I think is rising to the Yankees is Matt Harvey of UNC.
Matt Harvey was drafted in 07 by the Angels in the 3rd round. He was considered a 1st round talent but because of signability concerns he dropped in the draft. With Scott Boras as his agent/advisor he ended up following up on his commitment to UNC.
When he went to UNC most draft experts thought that he would be a top 5 pick easily in this draft. Some thought that he would be the #1 pick if he pitched to his ability at UNC. His freshman year helped him keep those thoughts there. Pitching mostly out of the starting rotation Harvey started 16 games with 3 games out of the pen. He pitched to a total of 67.2 innings with a 6.9 H/9, 6.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/p. He backed those stats up with a 1.46 WHIP and a 2.79 ERA. All of those numbers were great except the walks but that is something that can be improved on.
On the way to being a top 5 a big problem happened, it’s called sophomore year. Harvey got into 21 total games with 13 of them coming in the starting fashion. In those starts and games Harvey got 75 innings problem is he wasn’t very good in those innings. 10.6 H/9, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9. Those stats gave Harvey a 1.73 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA. The only improvement was in BB/9 but he did keep his K/9 almost at 10.
Coming into this year most draft experts thought Harvey would need a HUGE year to get higher than a late 2nd round pick. So far he hasn’t disappointed. 39 innings in over 6 starts Harvey has put up some dominating #’s. He has struck out 48 batters for an 11 K/9 to go along with a 1.85 ERA. His walk rate has lowered to 4.6 per 9 while still bad has improved.
Stuff wise Harvey has been flashing a mid 90’s fastball sitting in the low 90’s along with a plus curveball and an average change up. His height and weight are good for a starting pitcher being 6’4” weighting in as 225 lbs. I haven’t seen any video of Harvey pitch so I can’t give an opinion on his mechanics but guys who flash those pitches are nice to have.
The Boras factor is going to up his price but Harvey is the type of guy the Yankees don’t normally get in the draft. He struggled and those are the type of players that the Yanks go after. Legit top 5 guys don’t fall to the Yankees unless they have a big injury concern or have other concerns. The concern with Harvey is that he won’t ever be able to keep his stuff on check. His walk rate is a big concern but I have faith in the Yankees staff to fix that.
If the Yankees could get Harvey it would be a big boom to their farm system. While he would be a college pitcher I think he would need more time than other college pitchers because they would be working on his command. Harvey definitely is name to keep an eye on over the next 10 weeks.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Hitters and Pitchers
So the blog has taken a backseat to life right now. I just finished buying a house so I’m in the process of packing for the move which will take place in mid April. Also with the wife being prego I’ve had to do a bunch of stuff also. I’ve kicked ideas around for multiple blog posts and I’ve started research into a bunch of things I want to write about. The problem is finding time while doing all these other things and working. So I’m sorry for the lack of updates. I will be posting more now thou because it is an escape from all the hassle of everything else. So here we go.
In this blog post what I want to cover is a hitter and pitcher at each Yankee affiliate that people should be looking into.
AAA
Hitter: Jesus Montero. The guy is the best prospect in the Yankee system and I would say he has the biggest gap from his ceiling and the next guy. I have no doubts about Jesus’ hitting ability. I believe he will crush pitching. The biggest concern is now he is at a level where Yankee pitchers are going to be paying attention to runners so they won’t be getting great jumps off the pitchers. It is now where we see if Jesus will be able to throw out runners. If he can just be a slightly below average defender then his bat will play up hugely.
Pitcher: Zach McAllister. Zach is the best pitching prospect which is in the upper minors. In the last two seasons he has pitched extremely well. It would be nice to see that continue. I want to see him continue refining his secondary stuff. BA keeps changing it’s scouting report on him. Last year they said he had a plus fastball when you consider his movement and velocity with his secondary pitching lagging behind. Now they say he throw s an average fastball but has a plus slider. I would like to have Zach keep his k/9 over 7.
AA
Hitter: David Adams. Austin is the 2nd best prospect in the Yankees system so I’m not worried about him. David Adams had a breakout season last year. I want to see if the changes he made to his swing are legit or not. If David Adams keeps up this performance in AA he will push himself into the top 10 easily of the Yankee prospects. I want to see the same hitting and keep his solid defense up there.
Pitcher: DJ Mitchell. DJ did a very good job pitching this last year at Charleston and Tampa. The only problem for DJ is splits against left handed hitters. He needs to develop a change up to keep them off his sinker and curveball. If he can develop that pitch and keep lefties from not killing him his prospect status can go up from a Justin Masterson to a #4 starter.
A+
Hitter: Abe Almonte. Abe has some great tools and was a top 30 prospect until he had a terrible year in 08. He rebounded somewhat to put up some respectable numbers. With the Yankees lacking a lot of outfield prospects with big ceilings especially getting into the upper minors Abe could really help his case with a big season. I could see the Yankees being aggressive with Abe this year if he starts off Tampa with a big first half.
Pitcher: Jairo Heredia. Jairo really had a down year mostly because of injuries. He came to camp last year out of shape and it showed. He dominated in 08 the Sally league. Before Jairo had the down 08 Mike at RAB called him the Dominican Phil Hughes because Jairo struck out a ton of hitters and got a ton of groundballs. If Jairo comes to camp in good shape with his fastball being more consistent in it’s velocity he could really jump up into top 15 category for the Yankees.
A-
Hitter: Slade Heathcott. He has one of the highest ceilings in the system. Also when you invest a 1st round pick and give him $2.2 million bonus you expect much. Staying healthy is one major thing for Slade since he has fought some injuries the last year. I would love to see a healthy Slade put up some big numbers. If he puts up the numbers he is capable of he will be a top 100 prospect in baseball.
Pitcher: Nik Turley. The guy to me has a good upside from the left side. Also big projectable guys are a flaw to most prospect watchers. Turley was in short season last year and pitched pretty well. I want to see what he can do in full season and while he is raw I think he will do well. If he does I could see him spend all year in Low A this year and split next year between High A and AA. The Yankees didn’t just give a six figure bonus to a 50th rounder unless they thought he had talent.
So there you go people. Those are guys that I will be watching closely this year in the full season leagues. I will be doing one of these for SS and GCL closer to the start of those seasons. Also it will be interesting to see which 09 draft picks made the jump from full season to short season. Baseball is almost here. I know I can’t wait.
In this blog post what I want to cover is a hitter and pitcher at each Yankee affiliate that people should be looking into.
AAA
Hitter: Jesus Montero. The guy is the best prospect in the Yankee system and I would say he has the biggest gap from his ceiling and the next guy. I have no doubts about Jesus’ hitting ability. I believe he will crush pitching. The biggest concern is now he is at a level where Yankee pitchers are going to be paying attention to runners so they won’t be getting great jumps off the pitchers. It is now where we see if Jesus will be able to throw out runners. If he can just be a slightly below average defender then his bat will play up hugely.
Pitcher: Zach McAllister. Zach is the best pitching prospect which is in the upper minors. In the last two seasons he has pitched extremely well. It would be nice to see that continue. I want to see him continue refining his secondary stuff. BA keeps changing it’s scouting report on him. Last year they said he had a plus fastball when you consider his movement and velocity with his secondary pitching lagging behind. Now they say he throw s an average fastball but has a plus slider. I would like to have Zach keep his k/9 over 7.
AA
Hitter: David Adams. Austin is the 2nd best prospect in the Yankees system so I’m not worried about him. David Adams had a breakout season last year. I want to see if the changes he made to his swing are legit or not. If David Adams keeps up this performance in AA he will push himself into the top 10 easily of the Yankee prospects. I want to see the same hitting and keep his solid defense up there.
Pitcher: DJ Mitchell. DJ did a very good job pitching this last year at Charleston and Tampa. The only problem for DJ is splits against left handed hitters. He needs to develop a change up to keep them off his sinker and curveball. If he can develop that pitch and keep lefties from not killing him his prospect status can go up from a Justin Masterson to a #4 starter.
A+
Hitter: Abe Almonte. Abe has some great tools and was a top 30 prospect until he had a terrible year in 08. He rebounded somewhat to put up some respectable numbers. With the Yankees lacking a lot of outfield prospects with big ceilings especially getting into the upper minors Abe could really help his case with a big season. I could see the Yankees being aggressive with Abe this year if he starts off Tampa with a big first half.
Pitcher: Jairo Heredia. Jairo really had a down year mostly because of injuries. He came to camp last year out of shape and it showed. He dominated in 08 the Sally league. Before Jairo had the down 08 Mike at RAB called him the Dominican Phil Hughes because Jairo struck out a ton of hitters and got a ton of groundballs. If Jairo comes to camp in good shape with his fastball being more consistent in it’s velocity he could really jump up into top 15 category for the Yankees.
A-
Hitter: Slade Heathcott. He has one of the highest ceilings in the system. Also when you invest a 1st round pick and give him $2.2 million bonus you expect much. Staying healthy is one major thing for Slade since he has fought some injuries the last year. I would love to see a healthy Slade put up some big numbers. If he puts up the numbers he is capable of he will be a top 100 prospect in baseball.
Pitcher: Nik Turley. The guy to me has a good upside from the left side. Also big projectable guys are a flaw to most prospect watchers. Turley was in short season last year and pitched pretty well. I want to see what he can do in full season and while he is raw I think he will do well. If he does I could see him spend all year in Low A this year and split next year between High A and AA. The Yankees didn’t just give a six figure bonus to a 50th rounder unless they thought he had talent.
So there you go people. Those are guys that I will be watching closely this year in the full season leagues. I will be doing one of these for SS and GCL closer to the start of those seasons. Also it will be interesting to see which 09 draft picks made the jump from full season to short season. Baseball is almost here. I know I can’t wait.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Projecting players
One of the main things that organizations look at is present tools and skills but they also keep an eye on the future. Most scouts grade their present tools along with what their future tools should be when they get to the majors. They draft and sign kids who has the potential in their eyes to gain something. The problem with this is that I believe more times than it doesn’t translate.
Here are a couple examples.
When the Yankees drafted Zach McAllister a lot of people thought that when he would add mass and muscle to his frame that he would throw harder. Well fast forward 3 seasons of data and he has stayed at the same velocity. Most people were in love with the idea that Zach would throw harder. The guy is 6’6” which is a large player. A lot of people think that the bigger you are the harder you will throw and that isn’t always the case.
Austin Jackson is another player that people projected very well. After he blew up in Tampa most prospect experts thought that he would develop 15-20 hr power. He slugged .566 at Tampa, since then his slugging % has been .419, .405. So his power numbers have gone down each year. I believe that this was one of the main reasons that the Yankees traded him.
Now I’m not saying that players don’t get better or that the Yankees should draft differently. There are some players who got better. Jesus Montero is one of them. When Jesus was signed he had the potential to have a 80 power when he matured. Well in this year’s BA prospect handbook they write that Montero is almost there right now so he has developed.
Arodys Vizcaino is one guy who did mature under the Yankees. When they signed him he threw around 90 mph. He was touching 96 when they traded him to the braves with Melky. He also grew 2 inches.
So players do get better and do improve but not all the time. Some players aren’t going to throw harder and in fact some players actually throw harder in high school than in the pro’s. Tyler Clippard is one of those players. Mostly this is because in high school pitchers throw once a week so they have more days to rest. I do think that this is one reason that the Yankees tend to draft college pitchers. They know more about how they are going to throw. If they need a mechanical chance they will make it and sometimes that helps. It helped 2 Yankee farm hands in Jose Ramirez and David Phelps. Both gained velocity this year.
All I’m saying is that when we see these kids throwing in the low 90’s we get thoughts that in 2-3 years that they will be sitting mid 90’s. Most of the time that just doesn’t happen.
Here are a couple examples.
When the Yankees drafted Zach McAllister a lot of people thought that when he would add mass and muscle to his frame that he would throw harder. Well fast forward 3 seasons of data and he has stayed at the same velocity. Most people were in love with the idea that Zach would throw harder. The guy is 6’6” which is a large player. A lot of people think that the bigger you are the harder you will throw and that isn’t always the case.
Austin Jackson is another player that people projected very well. After he blew up in Tampa most prospect experts thought that he would develop 15-20 hr power. He slugged .566 at Tampa, since then his slugging % has been .419, .405. So his power numbers have gone down each year. I believe that this was one of the main reasons that the Yankees traded him.
Now I’m not saying that players don’t get better or that the Yankees should draft differently. There are some players who got better. Jesus Montero is one of them. When Jesus was signed he had the potential to have a 80 power when he matured. Well in this year’s BA prospect handbook they write that Montero is almost there right now so he has developed.
Arodys Vizcaino is one guy who did mature under the Yankees. When they signed him he threw around 90 mph. He was touching 96 when they traded him to the braves with Melky. He also grew 2 inches.
So players do get better and do improve but not all the time. Some players aren’t going to throw harder and in fact some players actually throw harder in high school than in the pro’s. Tyler Clippard is one of those players. Mostly this is because in high school pitchers throw once a week so they have more days to rest. I do think that this is one reason that the Yankees tend to draft college pitchers. They know more about how they are going to throw. If they need a mechanical chance they will make it and sometimes that helps. It helped 2 Yankee farm hands in Jose Ramirez and David Phelps. Both gained velocity this year.
All I’m saying is that when we see these kids throwing in the low 90’s we get thoughts that in 2-3 years that they will be sitting mid 90’s. Most of the time that just doesn’t happen.
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